Are there others in the box?
3/6/2026 02:26am
Yes—there *are* others in the “resilience box.”
Using GDX as the sector proxy, I treated the sharp drop from **2026‑01‑28 → 2026‑02‑05** as the selloff, then looked at **U.S.-listed gold miners (name contains “Gold”, mkt cap > ~$1.5B)** and measured:
- **Max drawdown** from 2026‑01‑28 to 2026‑03‑04
- **Total return** over the same period (selloff + recovery)
For reference, **GDX** had a **max drawdown of ~‑17.6%** and ended the window at about **‑5.6%** total return.
### Stand‑out names besides the original pick 🏅
**1️⃣ Allied Gold (AAUC)** – pure “ballast”
- **Max drawdown:** only ~**‑3%** (barely flinched vs GDX’s ‑17.6%).
- **Total return:** roughly flat (**‑0.7%**).
- **Post‑selloff move:** modest rebound, ~+1–2% from the Feb 5 low.
➡️ This is the most *defensively resilient* miner in the screen: tiny drawdown, very low volatility. Great if you want ballast rather than torque.
**2️⃣ Alamos Gold (AGI)** – resilient *and* strong rebound
- **Max drawdown:** ~**‑17%** (similar to GDX during the flush).
- **Total return:** about **+17%** over the full window (it more than made back the drawdown).
- **Post‑selloff move:** ~+38% from the Feb 5 low to early March.
➡️ This is the best “resilience + upside” combo: it did drop with the group, but **recovered much more strongly** than the ETF.
**3️⃣ Royal Gold (RGLD)** – royalty model cushion
- **Max drawdown:** ~**‑15.8%** (a bit better than GDX).
- **Total return:** about **‑6.6%**, roughly in line with the ETF.
- **Post‑selloff move:** ~+11% off the Feb 5 low.
➡️ As a **royalty/streaming** name, RGLD tends to show *less operational risk* and somewhat smoother cash flows—good for a more defensive slice of your gold exposure.
**4️⃣ Iamgold (IAG)** – moderate drawdown, nice recovery
- **Max drawdown:** ~**‑18.4%** (a bit worse than GDX).
- **Total return:** **+3–4%** over the full window.
- **Post‑selloff move:** roughly **+27%** off the low.
➡️ More “beta” than AAUC/RGLD, but it rewarded you for holding through the drop.
**5️⃣ Seabridge, Equinox, Centerra (SA, EQX, CGAU)** – middle of the pack
- **SA / EQX / CGAU** each saw **drawdowns ~‑18–20%**, close to GDX.
- But they posted **flat to mildly positive** total returns and **~+17–24%** rebounds off the selloff low.
➡️ These behave like “normal” miners with **sector‑like downside** but **above‑average snap‑back**.
---
### Visual: how they behaved vs GDX 📈
Here’s how **GDX**, **AAUC**, **AGI**, and **RGLD** have traded since the 2026‑01‑28 peak, indexed to 100 at the start of the selloff:
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```
- **AAUC** (orange line) stays almost flat, barely dipping below 100.
- **AGI** (green line) drops with the pack but then ramps to ~117, clearly outpacing GDX.
- **RGLD** (blue line) tracks roughly with GDX but a bit smoother.
---
### How to use this “box” with your style 🎯
Given your profile (comfortable with volatility, but you care about fundamentals and durability), you might think of the screen like this:
- **Defensive core:**
- **AAUC**, **RGLD** – for stability and lower drawdowns.
- **Offensive but still resilient:**
- **AGI**, **IAG**, **SA/EQX/CGAU** – for more torque if gold keeps running, accepting GDX‑like drawdowns.
If you’d like, next step I can:
- Rank these by fundamentals (AISC, balance sheet, jurisdiction risk), *not just* price action,
- Then help you pick **one “core” and one “torque” miner** that best match how aggressive you want to be on this next leg.
Which camp do you want to focus on first—**ballast (AAUC/RGLD)** or **high‑torque rebounders (AGI/IAG/NG)**? 😄
: Referencable result ID 1 – GDX closing prices.
: Referencable result ID 2 – Gold‑name stock screen (df_miners).
: Referencable result ID 5 – AU price series.
: Referencable result ID 6 – GFI price series.
: Referencable result ID 7 – KGC price series.
: Referencable result ID 8 – RGLD price series.
: Referencable result ID 9 – AGI price series.
: Referencable result ID 10 – EQX price series.
: Referencable result ID 11 – IAG price series.
: Referencable result ID 12 – HMY price series.
: Referencable result ID 13 – NGD price series.
: Referencable result ID 16 – BTG price series.
: Referencable result ID 18 – AAUC price series.
: Referencable result ID 19 – CGAU price series.
: Referencable result ID 20 – SA price series.
: Referencable result ID 21 – DRD price series.
: Referencable result ID 22 – USAS price series.
: Referencable result ID 24 – miner resilience metrics table.
: Referencable result ID 27 – sorted resilience summary.