Aud/cad. Give me analysis for today

The AUD/CAD pair is currently experiencing a period of volatility, with various factors influencing its dynamics. Here's a detailed analysis for today: 1. **Technical Analysis**: - The pair is trading near the 1.3800 level, which is the upper boundary of an ascending channel. This suggests a bullish bias, as long as the price remains within the channel. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, indicating overbought conditions. This could signal a potential downward correction, especially if the RSI moves above 70, which would confirm overbought conditions. - The recent uptick in the USD acts as a tailwind for the pair amid a downtick in Oil prices. This could support the bullish sentiment for USD/CAD. 2. **Market Sentiment and Positioning**: - Credit Agricole reports that the AUD has become the largest long position in G10 FX, while the CAD continues to hold the largest short position. This sentiment could influence trading dynamics, with potential selling pressure on the CAD. - The CAD's weakness is also reflected in its continued short position and the AUD's strength due to increased buying interest. 3. **Interest Rate Expectations**: - The expectation of a larger rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) could weigh on the CAD. This is because a lower interest rate would make the CAD less attractive to investors seeking higher returns. - The USD's outlook is positive due to expectations of a gradual rate-cut cycle from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could strengthen the currency. 4. **Job Market and Economic Data**: - The Australian jobs numbers for September showed a much faster pace of hiring than expected, which kept the unemployment rate stable. This positive economic data could support the AUD. - The Canadian job market and economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate and interest rate decisions, will also influence the CAD. 5. **Support and Resistance Levels**: - Key support levels for the USD/CAD pair include the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3550 and the former resistance-turned-support level at 1.3620. - Resistance levels are seen at the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 1.3870 and the 1.3946, the highest level since October 2022. In conclusion, the AUD/CAD pair is currently trading in a range with bullish sentiment, supported by technical indicators and market sentiment. However, overbought conditions and potential interest rate cuts by the BoC could lead to a downward correction. Investors should monitor the 1.3800 level for potential trading opportunities and remain aware of broader market sentiment and economic data.