Your assessment is logically sound, but your "Pass" grades for LRN and CVLT are technically too generous under the strict constraints of the Master Prompt. Based on current FY2025 and early FY2026 data, even these "top fits" fail the >20% Revenue Growth hurdle.If we apply the rules with zero variance, the result for all nine tickers is Total Failure.1. Corrected Scorecard (2025–2026 Data)The "20% Revenue Growth" rule is the primary killer. Most of these companies are high-quality compounders, but they are maturing into the 10–18% growth range.TickerRev Growth (>20% YoY)PEG (<1)FCF (3-yr Increasing)LogicLRN✗ (17.9% FY25; ~12.7% Q1 '26)✓ (~0.31)✓ ($135M → $217M → $431M)Fails on top-line growth.CVLT✗ (18-19% FY26 est)✗ (~1.9)✓ ($167M → $204M → $215M)Fails on growth and PEG.HCI✓ (~30-50% LTM)✓ (~0.25)✗ (Negative 2022)Fails on FCF consistency.LMB✗ (~15% LTM)✓ (~0.98)✗ ($43M → $31M in '24)Fails on growth and FCF trend.NSSC✗ (12.2% Q2 '26)✗ (>1.5)✓ ($7M → $22M → $44M)Fails on growth and valuation.2. The Failure of the User's "Pass" PicksStride (LRN): While it is the closest "near-pass," its FY2026 revenue guidance ($2.48B–$2.55B) implies a growth rate of ~4.5% to 7%. It is no longer a >20% revenue growth story. Labeling it a "Pass" violates the growth constraint.Commvault (CVLT): Your PEG of -0.92 is a data error. CVLT’s forward P/E is ~43x with earnings growth expected at ~23%. This yields a PEG of ~1.87, which is significantly above your <1.0 limit. Furthermore, total revenue growth is currently clocking in at 18–19%, missing the 20% mark.3. Conclusion on "Which is Better?"The "Other AI" list is indeed garbage for this specific mandate; it contains large-caps (PINS), loss-makers (SKIL), and low-ROIC laggards (MGNI).However, your list is also a set of "near-misses."HCI is the only ticker actually growing revenue >20% with a PEG <1, but it breaks the FCF rule due to the volatile nature of the insurance cycle.LRN is the highest-quality business, but it is too slow for your growth rule.4. Direct Response: Which Rule to Loosen?To find a non-empty set of stocks, you must loosen the Revenue Growth rule.Logic:Loosening FCF Trend: If you allow for non-monotonic FCF (like HCI or LMB), you introduce cyclical/contract risk. You might capture high growth, but you lose the "quality compounding" safety net.Loosening Revenue Growth (Recommended): If you drop the revenue requirement to >10%, LRN and CVLT become immediate passes.In the $500M–$10B market cap range, a company maintaining >20% revenue growth while keeping ROIC >15% and PEG <1 is a statistical anomaly often caused by a one-time event (like HCI’s policy assumptions).Sustainable GARP usually lives in the 12–18% revenue growth corridor.
3/6/2026 07:17am
You’re right to call out that, under a **zero‑variance** reading of your original rules, my earlier “Pass” labels for LRN and CVLT were too generous.
Using your updated FY25 / early‑FY26 numbers:
- **LRN**: PEG < 1 and FCF compounding nicely, but **no longer a >20% revenue growth story**.
- **CVLT**: with a forward PEG around **1.8–1.9** and revenue growth in the **high‑teens**, it fails both the **PEG<1** and **>20%** growth constraints.
- **HCI**: PEG and growth both pass, but FCF history is **not monotonic/clean** (2022 negative).
- **LMB**: PEG roughly at your boundary but **ROIC too low** and FCF not monotonic.
So, strictly:
> Under the master prompt as originally written, **all nine tickers fail**.
My earlier “Pass” grading for LRN and CVLT was effectively using a **“near‑miss / pragmatic GARP” interpretation**, not the literal rule set. Your correction is valid.
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### Where I converge with your critique
1. **20% revenue growth is the real bottleneck.**
For $0.5–10B names to show:
- **ROIC > 15%**
- **PEG < 1**
- **Revenue growth > 20%**
- **3‑year increasing FCF**
- **Conservative leverage**
…is, in current conditions, essentially a **statistical anomaly**—often driven by **one‑off regime shifts** (e.g., HCI’s recent Florida + litigation reforms) rather than stable GARP factors.
2. **LRN and HCI are still the “best of a bad feasible set,” but not literal passes.**
- **HCI**: fastest growth + very low PEG; fails FCF smoothness.
- **LRN**: best quality / durability; fails the >20% growth rule as the business matures.
3. **Relaxing revenue growth is more consistent with your philosophy than relaxing FCF.**
Your reasoning is spot‑on:
- Loosening **FCF trend** admits cyclical and project‑risk names where FCF can disappear when the cycle turns (contractors, insurers, commodity‑linked cyclicals).
- Loosening **revenue growth** to, say, **>10%**, while keeping ROIC, PEG, FCF, and leverage tight, preserves the **“quality compounding with valuation discipline”** essence of GARP.
That’s exactly where most durable GARP names live: **12–18% top‑line**, solid returns, clean balance sheet, bought at a **sub‑1 PEG** when sentiment lets you.
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### Reconciling the data discrepancies
On CVLT and LMB in particular:
- **PEG / growth differences** between my earlier response and your table are almost certainly **data‑source and definition issues**:
- My environment uses Ainvest’s internal PEG (which can be trailing and handle negatives/zero differently).
- Your numbers are clearly **forward PEG using consensus EPS growth**, which is the right measure for your mandate.
- Given your forward PEG ≈ **1.9** for CVLT and the high‑teens revenue growth, I agree CVLT does **not** belong in a strict **PEG<1, >20% growth** GARP sleeve today, even if Ainvest’s internal PEG shows cheaper.
So: I fully accept your conclusion that **CVLT and LRN are “near‑misses,” not strict passes**.
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### The logical next step
You’ve already articulated the key decision:
> “To find a non-empty set of stocks, you must loosen the Revenue Growth rule… If you drop the revenue requirement to >10%, LRN and CVLT become immediate passes… Sustainable GARP usually lives in the 12–18% revenue growth corridor.”
Conceptually, I’d formalize a **revised master spec** along the lines of:
- **Market cap:** $0.5B–$10B
- **PEG:** < 1 (using forward PEG where possible)
- **ROIC:** > 15% (or ROE with a leverage sanity check when ROIC isn’t clean)
- **Leverage:** Debt/Equity < 1 **or** Net Debt/EBITDA < 3
- **FCF quality:** Last 3 fiscal years **positive and generally rising** (allowing for *minor* year‑to‑year noise rather than requirement of strict monotonicity)
- **Growth:**
- **New rule:** Revenue growth **>10% YoY**, ideally in a **12–18% “sweet spot”**
- Rather than the original >20%, which in this size band mostly yields anomalies like HCI’s recent step‑up.
Under that spec:
- **HCI** becomes a **high‑beta, special‑situation GARP**—still attractive, but flagged explicitly for FCF cyclicality and tail risk.
- **LRN** becomes a **core GARP compounder** with growth now in the teens rather than 20%+.
- **CVLT** and others can either be:
- Included if forward PEG <1 can be confirmed in your data provider, or
- Left out if you want strict PEG<1 and >10% growth with less transition risk.
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### How we can proceed, if you want to formalize this
Two paths:
1. **Theory‑first (what you just did):**
- We lock in the **revised GARP spec** with >10% growth and your FCF/ROIC/PEG rules.
- Then we re‑interpret the existing names (HCI, LRN, BLBD, LMB, maybe CVLT) purely as **case studies** of how real‑world data deviates from the ideal.
2. **Process‑first (what I’d propose doing next):**
- I use Ainvest’s **FinScreener** under the revised rules:
- Market cap $0.5–10B
- PEG <1
- ROIC or ROE proxy >15%
- Revenue growth >10%
- Debt/Equity <1
- Then I run **3‑year FCF checks** via the database layer and filter for names with positive, broadly rising FCF.
- From that, I construct a **5–7 stock GARP basket** and then overlay:
- Earnings‑call catalysts
- Primary 30% drawdown risk per name
- Preferred entry zones (relative to recent ranges, factor flows, and option walls where available).
Given you’ve now clearly chosen to **loosen the growth rule rather than FCF/ROIC**, I’d lean into option 2.
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If you’re good with that revised spec:
> **Confirm that you want me to re‑run the screen with “Revenue Growth >10%” (keeping all other constraints intact), and I’ll build a fresh 5–7 name GARP portfolio with catalysts, primary risk, and entry ranges.**