How does ASML's Q1 2024 forecast compare to past trends?

ASML's Q1 2024 forecast reflects a cautious outlook despite positive signs in the semiconductor market recovery. 1. **Comparison to Past Trends**: - **Growth Consistency**: ASML has shown strong growth in recent years, with a 30% increase in net sales in 2023, reaching €27.6 billion. This growth is consistent with the trend of increasing demand for advanced semiconductors, particularly in AI, 5G, and high-performance computing. - **Q1 Performance**: For Q1 2024, ASML expects net sales between €5.0 billion and €5.5 billion, with a gross margin between 48% and 49%. This compares to the €6.4 billion net sales and gross margin of 51.5% in Q1 2023. The decrease in expected sales and margin indicates a potential slowdown or consolidation phase, which is a common trend in the semiconductor industry after periods of high growth. - **Market Conditions**: The forecast reflects the impact of export curbs to China, which could affect up to 15% of ASML's China sales. This geopolitical factor adds uncertainty to the forecast, as does the overall cautious stance of the company regarding the full year's revenue expectations, despite positive signs of market recovery. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2020 Q2|8.422465E8|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2020 Q3|1.2332507E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2020 Q4|1.6516615E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2021 Q1|1.56612582E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2021 Q2|1.23005936E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2021 Q3|2.01828396E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2021 Q4|2.00713412E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2022 Q1|7.6781979E8|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2022 Q2|1.46860581E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2022 Q3|1.66457745E9|185| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2023 Q1|2.12634576E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2023 Q2|2.1203364E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2023 Q3|2.00397456E9|185| |ASML|ASML.O|ASML Holding|2023 Q4|2.26560822E9|185| In conclusion, while ASML's Q1 2024 forecast indicates a conservative view amid market recovery, the company's strong historical performance and strategic positioning in the semiconductor industry suggest resilience and potential for future growth as market conditions stabilize.