Apple plans major iPhone redesigns, foldable and curved screens upcoming, how will this affect Apple's stock long-term?

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about Apple's upcoming iPhone redesigns and how they might affect the stock long-term. The user is asking for a deep analysis based on the provided references. First, I need to go through all the references to gather relevant information. Starting with the references, there are several articles about Apple's three-year plan for iPhones. They mention the iPhone Air, a foldable model in 2026, and a curved glass iPhone 20 in 2027. The foldable iPhone is codenamed V68, with four cameras, Touch ID, and a new C2 modem. There's also talk about a Liquid Glass interface and a new iOS design. Analysts like Mark Gurman from Bloomberg are cited, which adds credibility. Next, the financial implications. The foldable iPhone is expected to be expensive, around $1,999, which could boost ASPs (Average Selling Prices). However, there's a risk of lower sales volumes since foldables are niche. The curved glass iPhone 20 might attract premium users, but production challenges could delay it. Also, the competition from Samsung and Chinese manufacturers is mentioned, which might pressure Apple's market share. Looking at the stock analysis, BofA's Wamsi Mohan expects a "sell the news" reaction post-launch but projects modest shipment growth. The foldable iPhone could be a catalyst for supplier stocks like Lens Technology, which is highlighted in some articles. However, Apple's ecosystem strength and brand loyalty are seen as advantages against competitors. The user's question is about long-term effects. So, I need to balance the potential upside from new products with the risks like production delays, market competition, and regulatory issues. Also, the legal challenges with xAI suing Apple over AI integration might impact the stock, but that's more of a short-term concern. Putting it all together, the conclusion should be positive but cautious. Apple's innovation could drive growth, especially in premium segments, but execution risks and competition are significant. The stock might see volatility around product launches but could benefit from long-term ecosystem expansion. ``` ### 🌟 **Conclusion** Apple’s ambitious three-year iPhone redesign roadmap, featuring a foldable iPhone, curved-glass iPhone 20, and the iPhone Air, positions the company to **solidify its leadership in premium smartphones** while addressing **competition from Samsung and Chinese manufacturers**. However, **execution risks**, **supply chain challenges**, and **market saturation** could temper short-term upside. Long-term, Apple’s ecosystem integration, brand loyalty, and premium pricing power suggest **bullish potential**, but investors should remain cautious of **near-term volatility** and **regulatory risks**. --- ### 📊 **Analysis** #### 1. **Product Innovation & Market Impact** | **Key Product** | **Details** | **Market Implications** | |-------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Foldable iPhone (2026)** | - Book-style design, 4 cameras, Touch ID, C2 modem | - **Premium pricing** (~$1,999) could boost ASPs but risks niche adoption. - **Competition** from Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold series. | | **iPhone 20 (2027)** | - Curved glass, Liquid Glass interface, anniversary design | - **Differentiation** from flat-edge designs, targeting **luxury segment**. - **Production risks** due to curved glass complexity. | | **iPhone Air (2025)** | - Slimmer design, replacing iPhone 16 Plus | - **Mid-range appeal** but **battery trade-offs**. - **Carrier promotions** may drive adoption. | #### 2. **Financial Outlook** | **Metric** | **Projection** | **Risks** | |-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Shipments** | 235M units (FY26, +1% YoY) | - **Supply chain delays** for foldables. - **Economic slowdown** risks. | | **Revenue** | $482.7B (2028E) | - **Competition** from cheaper Android foldables. - **Regulatory scrutiny** on App Store. | | **Margins** | High (due to premium pricing, ecosystem integration) | - **Cost pressures** from new display tech. - **Litigation** risks. | #### 3. **Investor Takeaways** - **Bullish Case**: Apple’s **ecosystem dominance** (iOS, services, wearables) and **brand loyalty** provide a **moat** against competitors. The foldable iPhone could **reignite innovation fatigue** among iPhone users. - **Bearish Case**: **High pricing** risks limiting adoption, and **supply chain bottlenecks** could delay production. Additionally, **legal challenges** (e.g., xAI lawsuit) add uncertainty. --- ### 📊 **Key Risks & Catalysts** | **Risk** | **Catalyst** | |-------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Competition** | Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 7, Chinese foldables. | | **Regulatory** | App Store antitrust lawsuits, AI integration disputes. | | **Execution** | Foldable iPhone production delays, curved glass quality issues. | --- ### 📊 **Conclusion** Apple’s long-term success hinges on **executing its ambitious product roadmap** while navigating **competition, regulation, and supply chain risks**. The foldable iPhone and iPhone 20 represent **high-risk, high-reward opportunities** for Apple’s stock. Investors should **monitor shipments, pricing, and ecosystem integration** closely. Query |code|stock code|stock name|Last Price|Last Change|Theme|Inclusion Reason|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |CAN|CAN.O|Canaan|0.7649|1.688156|||185| |CANG|CANG.N|Cango|4.9804|1.640816|||169| |RIOT|RIOT.O|Riot Platforms|13.275|0.44251100000000004|||186| |HUT|HUT.O|Hut 8|23.25|-0.513479|||185| |BTCM|BTCM.N|BIT Mining|3.11|-0.9554139999999999|||169| |BTBT|BTBT.O|Bit Digital|2.845|-1.215278|||186| |BTDR|BTDR.O|Bitdeer|13.16|-1.423221|||186| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|349.42|-2.39159|||185| |COIN|COIN.O|Coinbase Global|311.6|-2.5793340000000002|||185| |FLD|FLD.O|Fold Holdings|3.66|-2.659574|||186|