APLD STOCK FORECAST

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle the APLD stock forecast. First, I need to go through all the provided references and background information. The user is interested in a stock forecast, so I should focus on the latest earnings, technical indicators, analyst ratings, and any recent news about the company. Starting with the earnings release date, it's July 30, 2025, which is recent. The earnings results show a beat on EPS but a miss on revenue. The company reported a loss of $0.03 per share, which was better than the expected $0.14 loss. However, revenue came in at $38 million, which is below the $42.07 million estimate. This mixed performance is important to note. Looking at the technical indicators, the time-series trend shows a bullish trend for 14 days with a 63% continuation probability. The support and resistance levels are between $9.88 and $10.32, and the stock is currently trading near the upper end of this range. The forecast suggests a bearish trend with a sell recommendation, but the historical win rate is close to the market average, so it's a bit mixed. The company has secured major lease agreements with CoreWeave, which could bring in $7 billion over 15 years. This is a significant catalyst for future growth. However, the recent revenue miss and the technical resistance level being near the current price might indicate some short-term pressure. Analyst ratings are mostly strong buy with an average price target of around $14.94, which is a 49% upside from the current price of $10.03. The cash runway and debt levels are concerning, with a high debt-to-equity ratio, but the company has raised capital recently, which might help with their infrastructure projects. The user profile mentions a focus on dividend growth and sustainability, but APLD doesn't pay dividends, so that's a downside. However, the long-term growth potential from AI infrastructure could align with their interest in capital appreciation. Putting it all together, the stock has strong fundamentals with the CoreWeave deals but faces short-term technical resistance and a recent revenue miss. The analyst consensus is bullish, but the user should be cautious about the debt levels and lack of dividends. The conclusion should balance these factors, highlighting the high upside potential against the risks. ``` ### **Conclusion** 🎯 **Applied Digital (APLD)** presents a **high-growth, high-risk** opportunity with **bullish fundamentals** but **short-term technical headwinds**. The stock is **near critical resistance levels** and faces **immediate downside pressure**, but **long-term catalysts** such as the **$7B CoreWeave lease agreements** and **AI infrastructure demand** could drive **significant upside**. Analysts project a **49.0% upside** to $14.94, but **execution risks** remain high. --- ### **Analysis** #### 1. **Earnings & Liquidity** 📊 - **Q4 2025 Earnings**: Reported **EPS of -$0.03** (beat by 78.57%) but **revenue of $38M** (missed by 9.67%) . - **Cash Runway**: $120.9M in cash equivalents as of Q4 2025, with $688.2M in total debt . - **CoreWeave Milestone**: Secured **250MW leases** (expandable to 400MW) with **$7B–$11B in contracted revenue** over 15 years . #### 2. **Technical Indicators** 📉 | Metric | Data | Implication | |--------|------|-------------| | **Current Trend** | Bullish (14 days) | Short-term upward momentum. | | **Continuation Probability** | 63% | High likelihood of trend persistence. | | **Support Levels** | Narrow: $9.88; Wide: $9.80 | Stock trading near narrow resistance. | | **Resistance Levels** | Narrow: $10.32; Wide: $9.95 | Breakout potential if bullish momentum resumes. | | **RSI** | 35.89 (oversold) | Potential for short-term bounce. | | **MACD** | -0.15 (bearish) | Negative divergence suggests caution. | #### 3. **Strategic Catalysts** 🚀 - **AI Infrastructure Boom**: CoreWeave leases align with **$80B–$62.5B hyperscaler investments** in AI/data centers . - **Polaris Forge 1**: 1GW AI-focused data center pipeline with **$1B+ annual revenue potential** . - **Hyperscaler Expansion**: First hyperscaler lease at Ellendale campus expected to accelerate revenue growth . #### 4. **Analyst Sentiment** 📊 - **Consensus Rating**: Strong Buy (9 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell) . - **Price Targets**: $12.00–$18.00 (49.0% upside from $10.03) . - **Key Risks**: High debt levels (138.4% debt-to-equity) and lack of dividends . --- ### **Key Takeaways** 📝 - **Bullish Case**: Potential breakout above $10.32 resistance if CoreWeave leases accelerate or AI demand surges. - **Bearish Case**: Continued volatility in tech sector and failure to meet lease milestones could pressure the stock. - **Risk-Reward**: High upside (49.0% target) but balanced against execution risks. --- ### **Final Call** 🛎️ **Hold** with a **high-growth profile**. Monitor closely for **Q4 2025 lease updates** and **AI infrastructure adoption trends**.