Can ALTG's Q1 forecast signal a turnaround for 2025?

**Alta Equipment Group's (ALTG) Q1 forecast does not necessarily signal a turnaround for 2025**, and here's why: 1. **Challenging Market Conditions**: Alta has been operating in a challenging market environment, with reduced volumes and pressured gross margins on equipment sales. These factors have contributed to the company's quarterly and annual earnings decline. 2. **Decline in New and Used Equipment Sales**: The company has reported a 3.7% decrease in new and used equipment sales for the full year 2024. This trend does not bode well for a potential turnaround in the upcoming quarter. 3. **Negative Earnings Surprise**: Alta has a history of missing earnings expectations. The company's Q4 report revealed an earnings surprise of -9.68% with a quarterly loss of $0.34 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.31. This trend of underperformance raises questions about the likelihood of a turnaround. 4. **Strategic Initiatives**: While Alta has implemented strategic initiatives such as right-sizing its fleet levels and optimizing working capital, the effectiveness of these measures in catalyzing a turnaround in the upcoming year is uncertain. 5. **Market Sentiment and Analysts' Views**: The company's stock has underperformed the market, and analysts have not significantly revised their earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter, suggesting a lack of confidence in a near-term turnaround. 6. **Financial Metrics**: Alta's adjusted EBITDA has decreased by 18.1% to $40.7 million, and the company reported a net loss of $11.4 million for Q4. These financial metrics indicate ongoing pressure, which is a hurdle for a turnaround narrative. In conclusion, while Alta has made efforts to address its challenges, the Q1 forecast does not indicate a probable turnaround for 2025. The company's ability to execute its strategic plans and respond to market conditions will be crucial in determining its future performance.