Is ALRS's Q1 2025 forecast achievable?

**Alerus Financial's (ALRS) Q1 2025 forecast appears to be achievable based on the company's historical performance and strategic initiatives.** Here's a detailed analysis to support this conclusion: 1. **Consistent Growth Trajectory**: ALRS has demonstrated a consistent growth trajectory in revenue and net income. For instance, in the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of $222.0 million, with a net income of $17.8 million. This growth was driven by increases in noninterest income and net interest income. 2. **Strategic Initiatives**: ALRS has been implementing strategic initiatives that have positively impacted its financial performance. For example, the company has been focusing on strategic balance sheet repositioning and increasing wealth revenue, which have led to a 43.3% increase in noninterest income. This strategic approach is likely to continue, supporting the company's growth targets. 3. **Loan Growth and Fee Income**: ALRS has experienced robust loan growth, with a 4.2% increase in the second quarter of 2024. Additionally, fee income has increased by 8.1% during the same quarter. These growth areas are expected to contribute to the company's revenue in Q1 2025. 4. **Market Outlook**: The market outlook for ALRS is positive, with the company's revenue forecasted to grow faster than the US market. This favorable market environment, combined with ALRS's strategic initiatives and historical performance, supports the achievability of the Q1 2025 forecast. 5. **Financial Ratios**: ALRS has shown improvement in its financial ratios, such as the diluted EPS, net interest margin, and CET1 ratio. These ratios indicate the company's strong financial health, which is a positive indicator for achieving its revenue and earnings targets. In conclusion, based on ALRS's historical performance, strategic initiatives, and favorable market conditions, the Q1 2025 forecast for the company appears to be achievable.