Is ALK a hold. Is it over bought

**Bottom line:** Alaska Air Group (ALK) still looks like a **hold**, and after last week’s pull-back it is **no longer in an over-bought zone**. --- ### What the data say | Metric | 9 Sep | 11 Sep | 12 Sep | 13-15 Sep | Comment | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Closing price ($) | 62.29 | 63.86 | 63.37 | 63.37 | Sideways consolidation | | RSI (14-day) | **80.6** | 70.3 | 62.6 | ≈60 (est.) | Fell from “over-bought” (>70) to neutral 50-70 range | | MACD | 0.22 | 0.01 | **-0.11** | n/a | Bearish crossover signals waning momentum | | P/E (TTM) | 23.08 | 23.53 | 23.35 | 23.35 | In line with U.S. airline peer median (~22) | *Key takeaways* 1. **RSI reset** – ALK briefly hit 82 on 28 Aug, but the indicator cooled to ~60 as price digested recent gains, so the stock is *no longer technically over-bought*. 2. **Momentum fading, not collapsing** – MACD slipped negative on 12 Sep, hinting at diminished upside pressure, yet the signal is shallow (-0.11) and could stabilise if the $62 floor holds. 3. **Valuation reasonable** – A 23× trailing P/E is close to sector norms and well below the market average, suggesting the share price isn’t stretched fundamentally. 4. **Sideways drift supports “hold”** – The $62–64 trading band has contained price since early September, showing neither clear breakout nor breakdown momentum. ### What would change the view? • **Upgrade to Buy** if the stock closes decisively above $66 on above-average volume, with RSI staying below 75 and MACD reversing positive. • **Downgrade to Reduce** if closing price breaks below $60 on rising volume and RSI sinks under 45, signalling a shift to oversold momentum. ```reference [{"type":"plotly-json","id":5}] ``` The chart above traces the September price plateau while the RSI sloped from extreme to neutral, giving a visual cue that the overheating has cooled off. 📈🧊 --- ### Actionable insight Given the neutral technical picture and fair valuation, maintaining a **hold** lets you keep exposure to ALK’s long-term fleet and route expansion story without chasing at an overheated level. 🛫 --- Curious to fine-tune? What’s your **risk tolerance**—steady-Eddie conservative or a bit more adventurous? 😄