Is ALGS' Q1 2025 forecast too conservative?

**ALigos Therapeutics' (ALGS) Q1 2025 forecast appears to be conservative**, considering the company's recent performance and upcoming developments. Here's why: 1. **Financial Projections**: For Q1 2025, ALGS is estimated to have an EPS of -$2.8 and revenue of $1 million. Comparing this to the previous quarter's revenue of $0.63 million and EPS of -$3.41, which fell short of expectations, the current forecast seems conservative. The company has not met revenue estimates in the past, with a significant shortfall in Q4 2024. 2. **Recent Performance**: Aligos has a history of underperformance, with earnings surprises to the downside. The company's stock has experienced significant declines, dropping over 73% year-to-date as of the latest report. This suggests that the market may already be pricing in lower expectations, making the forecast of $1 million in revenue for Q1 2025 seem conservative. 3. **Upcoming Developments**: Despite the challenges, Aligos has made notable progress, including the promotion of key executives and a successful $105 million fundraising. The company is advancing its pipeline with promising candidates, and a Phase 2 study for one of its lead drugs is planned to begin in mid-2025. These developments could lead to increased revenue and improved financial performance in the coming quarters. 4. **Analyst Sentiments**: The analyst target price for ALGS has been adjusted to $70.00, down from $75.00, by H.C. Wainwright, while maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook but does not necessarily imply a negative view of the company's long-term prospects. 5. **Market Position**: Aligos is focused on addressing unmet medical needs in liver and viral diseases, which could lead to significant opportunities if its pipeline candidates prove successful. The company's strategic cost management and focus on funding options suggest a proactive approach to navigating financial challenges. In conclusion, while ALGS' Q1 2025 forecast appears conservative based on the company's recent performance and financial projections, it is important to consider the broader context of Aligos' strategic initiatives and potential for future growth. The forecast may indeed prove conservative if the company's pipeline advancements and operational improvements translate into tangible financial results.