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The U.S. government shutdown of 2025, now the longest in history at 36 days, has become a focal point for investors navigating political risk and market volatility. Prediction markets, once niche, are now central to assessing the likelihood and duration of this crisis. As of November 2025, Polymarket and Kalshi data show a 34% probability of the shutdown lasting beyond November 16, down from 54% earlier in the year, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4514458-prediction-market-odds-of-us-shutdown-lasting-the-month-slip-on-key-election-day">a Seeking Alpha report</a> notes. This decline coincides with key election day events and growing institutional skepticism about prolonged gridlock. Yet, the 15% chance of a 60-day shutdown remains a tail risk that could reshape asset allocation strategies. <h3>Historical Precedents and Market Reactions</h3>Historical data reveals a mixed relationship between government shutdowns and stock market performance. The S&amp;P 500 has historically rebounded after shutdowns, such as the 36% surge following the 2018–2019 closure, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/government-shutdowns-stock-market-performance.html">a CNBC article</a> reports. However, shorter-term volatility is inevitable. For example, the index fell 4.5% within 100 days of the 2018 shutdown, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/government-shutdowns-stock-market-performance.html">the same CNBC article</a> notes. This duality underscores the importance of patience for long-term investors, as political uncertainties often resolve without catastrophic market consequences. Prediction markets now act as a barometer for sentiment. Kalshi's data, for instance, projects a 44-day shutdown on average, with a 44% probability of ending by November 15, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-markets-signal-government-shutdown-may-last-mid-november">a Fox Business piece</a> reports. These metrics are critical for modeling risks, such as reduced consumer spending (estimated to drop 2–4% due to furloughed workers) and disrupted economic data releases, which complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown">a JPMorgan analysis</a> finds. <h3>Economic Impact and Institutional Investor Behavior</h3>The economic toll of the shutdown is mounting. Analysts estimate a $15 billion weekly loss to the U.S. economy, with GDP growth potentially reduced by 0.1% per week due to stalled government operations, <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown">a JPMorgan analysis</a> finds. Sectors like travel and construction are already feeling the strain, as airlines cut flights and construction projects face delays, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4514458-prediction-market-odds-of-us-shutdown-lasting-the-month-slip-on-key-election-day">a Seeking Alpha report</a> notes. Consumer confidence, meanwhile, has hit a three-year low, with 71% of households anticipating higher unemployment, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4514458-prediction-market-odds-of-us-shutdown-lasting-the-month-slip-on-key-election-day">a Seeking Alpha report</a> notes. Institutional investors are recalibrating portfolios to mitigate these risks. A Morningstar survey reveals that 40% of global asset owners are reducing U.S. exposure, shifting capital to private markets and ESG-aligned assets, <a href="https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/spooked-geopolitics-global-allocators-pull-back-us-assets">a Morningstar survey</a> reports. This trend is amplified by AI-driven tools that process geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties, enabling more agile decision-making, <a href="https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/spooked-geopolitics-global-allocators-pull-back-us-assets">the same Morningstar survey</a> reports. For example, CIBC Asset Management Inc. recently launched three low-cost ETFs-Conservative, Balanced, and Balanced Growth-to cater to risk-averse investors amid macroeconomic instability, <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/cibc-asset-management-inc-announces-the-launch-of-three-asset-allocation-etfs-to-expand-our-all-in-one-solution-suite-889290320.html">a Newswire release</a> reports. <visualization dataurl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_w5g8wa4v.json"></visualization> <h3>Hedging Strategies and Asset Allocation Shifts</h3>Prediction markets are increasingly informing hedging strategies. Institutional investors are leveraging platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to price political risks, with some adjusting sector allocations based on real-time odds, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-markets-signal-government-shutdown-may-last-mid-november">a Fox Business piece</a> reports. For instance, increased bets on a prolonged shutdown have spurred interest in defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare, while reducing exposure to cyclical industries like industrials and consumer discretionary, <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-markets-signal-government-shutdown-may-last-mid-november">the same Fox Business piece</a> reports. Hedge funds, too, are adapting. Marshall Wace's Eureka Fund, for example, achieved a 10.72% year-to-date return in October 2025 by capitalizing on market dislocations caused by political uncertainty, <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3WJ2EI:0-marshall-wace-hedge-fund-posts-positive-returns-in-october-says-source/">a Reuters report</a> notes. Similarly, firms like Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co. Ltd. have raised stakes in risk management services (e.g., Aon plc), reflecting a broader shift toward human capital and regulatory compliance solutions, <a href="https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-aon-plc-aon-shares-acquired-by-mitsubishi-ufj-asset-management-co-ltd-2025-11-08/">a MarketBeat alert</a> reports. However, the integration of prediction markets into institutional strategies is not without challenges. Legal battles, such as Kalshi's lawsuits against Nevada and New Jersey regulators over sports betting contracts, highlight jurisdictional ambiguities that could delay market adoption, <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3WJ2EI:0-marshall-wace-hedge-fund-posts-positive-returns-in-october-says-source/">a Reuters report</a> notes. Despite this, the mainstreaming of prediction markets-via Google Finance's integration of Kalshi and Polymarket data-signals growing legitimacy, <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3WJ2EI:0-marshall-wace-hedge-fund-posts-positive-returns-in-october-says-source/">a Reuters report</a> notes. <h3>Conclusion: Navigating Volatility with Precision</h3>The 2025 government shutdown underscores the need for investors to balance short-term hedging with long-term resilience. While prediction markets offer granular insights into political risks, their utility depends on the ability to translate probabilities into actionable strategies. For risk assets, this means overweighting sectors insulated from fiscal uncertainty (e.g., healthcare, utilities) and underweighting those tied to discretionary spending. Moreover, the rise of structured products like CIBC's ETFs and AI-driven analytics tools provides a framework for navigating volatility without overreacting to transient events. As the shutdown nears resolution, investors should remain vigilant: even a brief extension beyond mid-November could trigger a reevaluation of market positioning. In an era of systemic dysfunction, prediction markets are not just indicators-they are instruments of adaptation.

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The U.S. Government Shutdown and Its Impact on Market Sentiment and Risk Assets

<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;c3dfc2b5-fa26-4f2d-b30c-b35e70e027f8&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/fa4de269-358e-4f6e-bc8a-ebd97280152f_image_60b64d4b1762735084669.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/fa4de269-358e-4f6e-bc8a-ebd97280152f_image_60b64d4b1762735084669.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The U.S. government shutdown, now grinding into its 40th day, has morphed from a political standoff into a full-blown economic hazard, with air travel disruptions signaling broader pain ahead. Senate Republicans and a cadre of moderate Democrats are cobbling together a fragile compromise to reopen federal operations, but deep divisions over health care subsidies cast long shadows over the effort. As flight cancellations surpass 2,500 over the weekend and food aid hangs in the balance, the impasse underscores the high stakes for American families, businesses, and the fiscal landscape. With Thanksgiving looming, Treasury Secretary Sean Duffy&#39;s stark warning of air travel &quot;reduced to a trickle&quot; amplifies the urgency, potentially derailing holiday commerce and amplifying supply chain strains.Negotiations Gain Momentum Amid UncertaintyIn a rare Sunday session, Senate Majority Leader John Thune signaled optimism, declaring a potential deal was &quot;coming together&quot; to end the deadlock. Yet, he tempered expectations, noting it was far from sealed. The push stems from weekend huddles among moderate Democrats, led by figures like New Hampshire&#39;s Jeanne Shaheen, who are collaborating with Republicans to forge a path forward. Their aim: a legislative package that funds key sectors through the fiscal year while extending temporary stopgap measures for the rest until late January.This emerges against a backdrop of repeated failures. Democrats have rebuffed reopening votes 14 times, insisting on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire year-end. Without them, premiums could more than double for millions enrolled in Obamacare exchanges, exacerbating affordability crises. Republicans, however, have stonewalled negotiations on health care during the closure, preferring to address it post-reopening. Thune dismissed Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer&#39;s Friday proposal for a one-year subsidy extension as a &quot;nonstarter,&quot; prompting moderates to seek alternatives.The emerging framework includes provisions to reverse some Trump administration mass firings of federal workers since the October 1 shutdown onset. Republicans unveiled text for three full-year spending bills, maintaining a ban on congressional pay raises but allocating $203.5 million for enhanced lawmaker security amid rising threats. A nod to Kentucky&#39;s Mitch McConnell, the package bars sales of certain hemp-based products, reflecting niche policy wins amid the chaos.Democratic Rifts Deepen the Divide<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;28b1113a-ffa0-4fa1-9212-1bba9b01178c&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/6a86cac8-9f21-42f2-ac97-7eca01a98130_image_d1815d7a1762735187565.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/6a86cac8-9f21-42f2-ac97-7eca01a98130_image_d1815d7a1762735187565.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />While Republicans need just five Democratic votes to advance, the deal&#39;s exclusion of immediate subsidy extensions has ignited pushback. Around 10 to 12 moderates are involved, but progressives like Vermont&#39;s Bernie Sanders decry it as a &quot;horrific mistake,&quot; warning it greenlights authoritarian tendencies under President Trump. Michigan&#39;s Elissa Slotkin voiced disappointment, emphasizing her desire for concrete health care action, while House voices amplified the dissent. Texas Representative Greg Casar, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, labeled the arrangement a &quot;betrayal,&quot; arguing a mere promise of a future vote equates to capitulation. Minnesota&#39;s Angie Craig quipped it was no deal at all, likening it to selling a nonexistent bridge.Even if the Senate advances, procedural delays from opponents could stretch proceedings for days. A procedural vote loomed Sunday evening, testing support. House Speaker Mike Johnson has withheld commitments on a health vote, and Republicans remain divided—some open to subsidy extensions with eligibility curbs and individual routing of funds, others echoing Trump&#39;s blistering critique of Obamacare as &quot;the worst healthcare for the highest price.&quot;Aviation Sector Bears the Brunt<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;00b6311d-5f6b-4c12-ae85-44ad9a74a80a&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/d8a6affe-1837-4371-86a6-db002a50b3b7_image_e9bae6e01762735265600.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/d8a6affe-1837-4371-86a6-db002a50b3b7_image_e9bae6e01762735265600.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The shutdown&#39;s toll is most visceral in the skies, where U.S. airlines axed over 2,500 flights this weekend alone, marking the first Sunday breach of 2,000 cancellations since the crisis began. FlightAware data revealed more than 7,000 delays Sunday, with hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, Charlotte, and Newark hardest hit. The Federal Aviation Administration&#39;s mandate, slashing traffic by 4% at 40 key airports and eyeing 10% by Friday, stems from acute staffing shortages among air traffic controllers.Unpaid for nearly a month, controllers are logging mandatory six-day overtime shifts, with many calling in sick or moonlighting to cover bills. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association delivered 1,600 handwritten pleas to Congress Saturday, underscoring the human strain. Transportation Secretary Duffy flagged escalating cuts if the shutdown persists, potentially crippling Thanksgiving travel—a peak period for consumer spending.Passengers feel the pinch unevenly. While most rebook swiftly, disruptions ripple: rental car firms report surging one-way demands, and some travelers, like New Jersey&#39;s Diana Alvear, scrap plans altogether, forfeiting Airbnb deposits and facing work fallout. Puerto Rico-bound Heather Xu highlighted added stress, while Miami&#39;s Emmy Holguin voiced hopes for resolution amid family visits. International routes remain intact so far, but uncertainty looms.Economic Ripples Threaten Broader StabilityBeyond airports, the shutdown&#39;s fiscal tentacles extend far. Food aid disruptions ensnare tens of millions via the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, mired in legal tussles. Over two dozen states warn of &quot;catastrophic&quot; fallout as the administration demands reversal of court-ordered benefits following a Supreme Court stay. In Washington, the Capital Area Food Bank ramps up to 8 million extra meals—a 20% spike—straining resources for unpaid federal workers.Analysts foresee cascading effects. Nearly half of U.S. air freight rides passenger jets, so cancellations could hike shipping costs, inflating store prices as Syracuse University&#39;s Patrick Penfield warns. Tourism hotspots brace for hits, with lost hotel and city taxes compounding woes. Elevate Aviation Group&#39;s Greg Raiff predicts impacts from stalled business meetings to manufacturing slowdowns, eroding economic momentum.Fiscal hawks note the irony: a shutdown rooted in spending disputes now balloons costs through inefficiencies and lost productivity. Unpaid federal salaries, delayed aid, and aviation chaos could shave GDP growth, echoing past shutdowns&#39; multibillion-dollar tabs. With premiums poised to surge sans subsidies, health care markets face volatility, potentially deterring enrollment and straining insurers.Path Forward: Fragile Hopes and High RisksAs negotiators finalize details, the deal&#39;s viability hinges on moderate Democrats&#39; buy-in and procedural navigation. Republicans preview a health debate, but outcomes are uncertain—subsidies might extend with strings, or falter amid overhaul calls. Trump&#39;s rhetoric intensifies scrutiny, framing Obamacare as a fiscal drain.Yet, the human and economic costs mount daily. Flight reductions, if unchecked, could throttle holiday commerce, a linchpin for retail and logistics. Food insecurity and worker hardships amplify calls for compromise, but ideological trenches—health care affordability versus fiscal restraint—persist.In this fiscal theater, moderates like Shaheen and Thune emerge as pivotal actors, balancing party loyalties with national imperatives. Success could avert deeper recessionary signals; failure risks entrenching dysfunction. As Duffy&#39;s warnings echo, the clock ticks toward a resolution that could redefine Washington&#39;s fiscal playbook—or prolong the pain.

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Senate Moderates Push for Shutdown Breakthrough as Flight Chaos Threatens Holiday Economy

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_9e8ee30f1762523407550.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xfWWgdORvZM&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPEpisode16Rasmussen_9e8ee30f1762523407550.jpg&quot;}"></video>Affirm (AFRM) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affirm-holdings-afrm-surpasses-q1-225501873.html" target='__blank'>delivered</a> a clean beat-and-raise that threads the needle between growth and discipline—exactly what BNPL skeptics said would be hard to sustain this late in the cycle. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 34% to $933 million (vs. ~$882–$884 million consensus) and EPS printed $0.23 (vs. $0.11 est.), with EBIT of $64 million (vs. $25 million est.). GMV jumped 42% to $10.8 billion, powered by its 0% APR products, continued adoption of the Affirm Card, and distribution via payment-service-provider (PSP) partners. Management nudged guidance higher, including operating margin now “more than 7.5%” for the year (prior “more than 6%”) and reaffirmed the long-stated goal of keeping revenue-less-transaction-costs (RLTC) around a 3–4% band, with 4% the upper bound. The quarter also came with a strategically important extension of the U.S. Amazon partnership through January 2031, plus another ABS deal and added forward-flow capacity—useful ballast if markets get choppy. <a href="https://investors.affirm.com/static-files/f1ccece4-2a12-4365-9032-50287ccf5ec1" target='__blank'>Credit</a> is the fulcrum of the BNPL debate, and Affirm’s read remains steady rather than euphoric. Management said consumers are “borrowing, paying us back, shopping fairly healthily,” and they “do not see any loss of repayment.” The data line up: 30+ day delinquencies (excluding Peloton and Pay-in-X) fell 4 bps year over year and rose 45 bps quarter over quarter—seasonal normalization that tracks historical patterns. Recent monthly-installment cohorts continue to point to ~3.5% ultimate net charge-offs, consistent with prior vintages. Mix matters here: the share of 0% APR loans increased to 28% from 25% a year ago, and 0% APR products carry a lower credit-risk profile. In plain English, product mix and underwriting (including cash-flow underwriting for younger cohorts) are offsetting late-cycle nerves you’re seeing in other consumer buckets—especially auto—where delinquencies have climbed.Funding flexibility was another bright spot. Capacity increased to $26.6 billion, which the company believes supports more than $60 billion in annual GMV on a roughly 5-month weighted-average duration. In September, Affirm printed its largest ABS to date ($1.1 billion) at the lowest weighted-average yield since FY’22 and, notably, with a three-year revolving period—reducing near-term refinancing risk. Forward-flow capacity grew by roughly $500 million as relationships with large insurers deepened and a new asset manager onboarded; warehouse capacity expanded by $300 million, and advance rates improved with a bank partner thanks to predictable credit performance. If credit is the fulcrum, funding is the hinge—both looked sturdier this quarter.Unit economics and operating leverage also improved. RLTC landed around 4.2% in the quarter (management’s reiterated upper bound is 4%), and adjusted operating income reached $264 million, a 28% margin versus 19% a year ago. The margin lift was driven by a $170 million increase in RLTC dollars and operating expense discipline (sales and marketing fell year over year largely due to warrant amortization rolling off). Technology and data costs rose in line with a 52% increase in transaction count—investment that supports Card growth, wallet integrations, and international work streams like the U.K. with Shopify.On the growth side, momentum remains broad-based—not just a one-merchant story. GMV from 0% APR products grew 64% and 0% APR monthly installment GMV rose 74% as more than 40,000 merchants funded offers; roughly 95% of 0% APR monthly installment GMV at integrated merchants is merchant-funded. Direct-to-consumer GMV grew 53% to $3.2 billion, with Affirm Card GMV up 135% to $1.4 billion; in-store Card usage surged 170%. Active cardholders more than doubled to 2.8 million; active consumers reached 24.1 million (+24% y/y), the seventh straight quarter of accelerating growth. Concentration risk nudged lower as GMV from the top five partners declined to 44% from 47% a year ago, even as those partners still grew strongly (+33%).Guidance threads caution with confidence. Q2 revenue is guided to $1.03–$1.06 billion (roughly in line at the midpoint) with EBIT around $78 million, and GMV of $13.0–$13.3 billion. For the full year, revenue of ~$4.0 billion and EBIT of ~$299 million imply continued operating leverage as RLTC dollars scale. Management reiterated that the 4% RLTC cap is about optimizing long-term growth and profitability, not squeezing take rates in the short run. Translation: they’ll spend RLTC “headroom” to win durable distribution and better cohorts.So why the stock wobble around the print? Two things. First, BNPL remains a lightning rod in a market suddenly twitchy about consumer credit—especially with headline fatigue from auto delinquencies and a softening labor narrative. Second, AFRM’s tape has carved a descending triangle in recent weeks as investors positioned for a credit scare that didn’t show up in the data. Shares dipped on the open despite the beat/raise, then reclaimed losses. Technically, the 200-day moving average near $65 is the line in the sand. A decisive test is likely; a hold could reset the pattern and invite momentum back toward the mid-70s, while a break would risk a slide toward prior volume shelves. For traders, the setup is unusually clean: defined risk at/just below the 200-day; for longs, confirmation requires both the hold and follow-through.Risks bear watching. RLTC can be lumpy quarter to quarter due to capital-markets activity and product mix; seasonality will keep near-term delinquency compares noisy. Macro remains a swing factor: a more pronounced slowdown or a sharper rise in unemployment would test BNPL’s resilience despite better underwriting and merchant-funded 0% APR. Regulatory scrutiny is the wild card every BNPL model carries.Bottom line: AFRM’s quarter argues the model is scaling with improving quality—growth diversified across products and channels, credit metrics stable, and funding breadth expanding. In a market fretting about late-cycle consumer cracks, that combination is rare. The narrative now shifts to the chart: all eyes on the 200-day at $65 to see if fundamentals can overpower fear of the pattern.

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Affirm Defies Credit Fears With Big Beat—But Can It Hold the Line at $65?


At the closing bell Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 75 points (0.2%) to 46,987, the S&amp;P 500 added roughly 0.1% to 6,729, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% to 23,005, while the Russell 2000 climbed 0.5% to 242. In commodities, crude oil (Dec) hovered near $59.73, up 0.5%, and gold (Dec) traded around $4,008, up 0.4%. The Cboe Volatility Index edged up to about 19.7. Markets closed on a cautious note amid persistent uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and its potential ripple effects on the broader economy.<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yw8rq7zMBC0" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/David Trainer_aca0765a1762548184127.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/yw8rq7zMBC0&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/David Trainer_aca0765a1762548184127.jpg&quot;}"></video>A deal to end the U.S. government shutdown appeared dead on arrival late Friday afternoon. Democrats pitched a stopgap clean funding bill paired with a one-year extension of enhanced ACA tax credits and longer-term talks on health-care affordability—an offer Republicans rejected. “No, we’re not going to do that,” Sen. Steve Daines told Fox News. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, of New York, proposed the deal and called it a &quot;simple compromise.&quot; Because of the shutdown and staffing shortages, the FAA began trimming flights at 40 major airports, starting with a 4% reduction on Friday and stepping up to 10% by Nov. 14. The agency issued a press release claiming the cuts will “maintain the highest standards of safety” as staffing strains build during the shutdown. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said, &quot;My department has many responsibilities, but our number one job is safety… It’s safe to fly today, and it will continue to be safe to fly next week because of the proactive actions we are taking.” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford added that the FAA is “proactively reducing the number of flights” and will not hesitate to take “further action.” Airlines must issue full refunds for cancellations, the FAA said. Carriers began reshaping schedules. Bloomberg reported that United Airlines projected about 510 flights would be cut from Friday through Sunday, with 184 on Friday alone, and plans further trimming to reach the 10% target next week. Delta is slated to make approximately 170 cuts, Southwest Airlines is expected to make roughly 120, and American Airlines is anticipated to make about 220 daily cuts through Monday. CEO Bob Isom told CNBC that the reductions are already crimping Thanksgiving bookings.Meanwhile, Bank of America Institute data indicated that after-tax wage growth in October cooled to 1.0% YoY for lower-income households, 2.0% for middle-income, and 3.7% for higher-income groups. <img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/88ea3cfd4e264adb9309d9ff4045b8c1_8548a8561762549145336.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/88ea3cfd4e264adb9309d9ff4045b8c1_8548a8561762549145336.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Payroll growth held near 0.5% YoY, and households receiving unemployment benefits rose about 10% YoY—signs of easing pay pressure without a spike in joblessness.

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