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Which of the Magnificent Seven Has Proven Most Resilient Since the February 21 Index Adjustment?

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_b844d9d71768483428745.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_b844d9d71768483428745.jpg&quot;}"></video> <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/pressroom/press-releases/current/pdfs/2025-q4-results.pdf" target='__blank'>Goldman Sachs</a> and <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/msdotcom/en/about-us-ir/shareholder/4q2025.pdf" target='__blank'>Morgan Stanley</a> hit the tape at the exact same time Thursday morning, and the message was loud and clear: Wall Street’s deal machine didn’t slow down — it rotated. While earlier in the week JPMorgan’s investment banking line looked softer than expected, both GS and MS showed they were major beneficiaries of improving M&amp;A momentum and healthier underwriting activity into year-end. The market reaction, though, is following the script we’ve seen all week across the money-center group: solid fundamentals, solid prints, and investors still choosing to sell first and ask questions later after big 12-month runs. Morgan Stanley is chopping around, while Goldman is slipping into a “sell-the-news” fade — less about disappointment and more about positioning and profit-taking.Starting with Goldman Sachs, the quarter was a classic “EPS beat, revenue miss, but the engine room is humming” setup. Goldman printed Q4 EPS of $14.01 versus consensus around $11.67–$11.70, a sizable beat driven by strong performance in its core Global Banking &amp; Markets franchise and some meaningful below-the-line help. Net revenues came in at $13.45B, below estimates around $13.79B (and also flagged as a miss versus some forecasts closer to $14.5B), with the shortfall largely tied to Platform Solutions — the consumer-banking venture Goldman has been shrinking after it failed to scale into a durable profit center. In other words: the market didn’t love the headline revenue miss, but investors also understand that the “platform” drag is increasingly a runoff story, while the institutional franchise is the real driver of valuation.Goldman’s investment banking performance, however, was the cleanest headline in the report and the most relevant datapoint for the sector’s broader narrative. Investment banking fees rose 25% year-over-year to $2.58B, powered primarily by a sharp rebound in advisory activity as completed M&amp;A volumes increased. M&amp;A advisory revenue jumped 41% to $1.36B, confirming that the deal calendar loosened up late in the year and Goldman remained at the center of it. Relative to earlier read-throughs from JPM, this is important because it suggests the investment banking “pie” didn’t shrink — it shifted — and Goldman was one of the biggest winners in that rotation.Goldman also delivered a strong markets quarter. Equities trading revenue came in at $4.31B versus expectations around $3.65B, while FICC revenue printed $3.11B versus estimates around $2.95B. That combination matters because it highlights Goldman’s ability to monetize volatility and client activity across multiple products at once — and it provides a nice counterweight against any softness investors might be worried about in underwriting pipelines. Even with the revenue miss headline, the underlying feel of the report was that client engagement remains high and the firm is executing well across trading and banking in a healthier capital markets environment.One unusual wrinkle in Goldman’s quarter was the impact from the Apple Card transition. The firm disclosed a $2.26B markdown tied to transferring Apple Card loans to held-for-sale and contract termination obligations, but this was paired with a reserve reduction that flowed through credit costs, producing a net benefit in provision for credit losses of $2.12B. That accounting reality helped lift earnings power in the quarter and also underscores a broader theme for Goldman: it’s still cleaning up consumer-banking experiments that didn’t fit the franchise, and markets will likely reward continued simplification even if the unwind creates periodic noise in reported revenue.Goldman also leaned into shareholder returns and profitability targets, raising its quarterly dividend to $4.50/share from $4.00 and reiterating through-the-cycle goals of mid-teens returns and an efficiency ratio around 60%. ROE was reported at 16% for the quarter, a strong number that reinforces why the stock has been such a monster over the past year (+~63%). That’s also why the reaction function is tricky today: Goldman can beat on earnings and still sell off simply because the stock has already been pricing in “everything goes right” for months.Morgan Stanley’s quarter was cleaner from a headline perspective, delivering a more traditional beat on both EPS and revenue while showing strength across wealth management and investment banking. MS reported Q4 EPS of $2.68 versus expectations around $2.43–$2.44 and revenue of $17.9B versus consensus around $17.7B–$17.77B. Net income rose to $4.4B from $3.7B a year ago, and investors got exactly what they come to Morgan Stanley for: steady wealth-driven growth plus cyclical upside from capital markets activity.The wealth management engine remains Morgan Stanley’s defining differentiator, and it showed up in the quarter in a big way. Wealth management revenue came in at $8.43B versus $8.34B expected, and full-year wealth revenue hit a record $31.8B. Total client assets across wealth and investment management climbed to $9.3T, supported by more than $350B in net new assets in 2025 — with Q4 net new assets of $122.3B, more than doubling from the year-ago period. That’s a powerful reminder that Morgan Stanley is effectively running a hybrid model: a higher-quality, more annuity-like wealth franchise layered on top of an investment bank that can still rip when deal activity improves.In Institutional Securities, Morgan Stanley reported net revenues of $7.9B versus $7.3B a year ago, with investment banking standing out as the biggest swing factor. Investment banking revenue surged 47% to $2.41B (up from $1.64B), driven by stronger advisory results and higher equity and debt underwriting activity tied to increased event-related issuance. That’s the key “compare and contrast” point against JPM, BAC, and Citi: MS had the strongest percentage growth print of the group on IB momentum, and it reinforces the idea that the late-year deal cycle reaccelerated — but not uniformly across every franchise.Trading at Morgan Stanley was also solid but more mixed than Goldman’s. Equities trading revenue came in at $3.67B versus $3.55B expected, helped by strong client activity and higher financing revenue from prime brokerage balances. Fixed income trading revenue declined 9% year-over-year, largely due to weaker commodities and FX, where volatility and structured activity weren’t as supportive. In short: Goldman looked more dominant across markets, while Morgan looked more dominant in wealth and still excellent in advisory.Now to the key sector comparison: investment banking fees relative to JPM, Bank of America, and Citi. JPM reported investment banking revenue down 2% year-over-year, which stood out as a rare soft spot in an otherwise strong JPM quarter. Bank of America posted modest improvement (up ~1%), with some softness in certain advisory and underwriting categories but still better than feared. Citi, notably, looked strong on investment banking and has been viewed as one of the relative bright spots this season even though the stock still rolled over with the group. Put simply, GS (+25% IB fees) and MS (+47% IB revenue) clearly outperformed JPM and BAC on the investment banking line this quarter, and they at least matched the spirit of Citi’s stronger-than-expected investment banking performance.The reason this matters is that investment banking results tend to be the “animal spirits” indicator for the sector: it tells you whether corporate confidence is rising, pipelines are opening, and CEOs are getting comfortable doing transactions again. On that score, GS and MS looked like the best pure-play read-throughs that dealmaking is finally accelerating — exactly the opposite of what the market inferred from JPM’s more subdued commentary earlier in the week.So why is Goldman down and Morgan just chopping around despite strong results? It comes back to setup and valuation gravity. Goldman is up more than 60% over the last year, Morgan is up nearly 40%, and the entire bank complex has had a strong run into earnings. With the fundamentals holding up, the sell-the-news trade increasingly looks less like “something is wrong” and more like “locking gains while you can.” The open question for the rest of the day is whether that profit-taking fades and dip buyers step in — and the bull case for dip buying is straightforward: capital markets activity is improving, trading is delivering, credit is not imploding, and wealth flows remain healthy. If the tape stays constructive and yields don’t spike, buyers are likely to view weakness in high-quality franchises like GS and MS as opportunity rather than warning.Bottom line: Goldman’s quarter showcased elite trading and a strong rebound in advisory-driven banking, while Morgan’s quarter reinforced the power of its wealth management machine while also posting a blowout investment banking print. Against the broader peer set — JPM, BAC, and Citi — both GS and MS were the clear winners on investment banking momentum in Q4. Whether stocks can hold the gains today will depend less on the numbers (which were strong) and more on whether investors are done taking profits after a huge 12-month move — and history says that if fundamentals stay firm, dip buying eventually tends to show up right after the sellers run out of shares.

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Goldman and Morgan Stanley Just Took the Lead in Investment Banking — But “Sell-the-News” Is Still Running the Tape

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_db2df7541768481053179.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_db2df7541768481053179.jpg&quot;}"></video>Taiwan Semiconductor’s <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-strong-outlook-shores-hopes-072434087.html" target='__blank'>Q4 report</a> didn’t just deliver a beat — it reset the tone for the entire tech tape overnight. After a choppy stretch where investors were starting to treat the “AI trade” like a crowded elevator, TSMC came out with results that reinforced the core bull case: leading-edge demand is still strong, utilization is still high, and the company is willing to spend aggressively to keep up with what it sees as a multi-year AI capacity shortage. The stock jumped roughly 5%+ premarket, and the rally quickly spilled into the broader semiconductor complex, lifting Nasdaq futures and putting chip equipment names at the top of the leaderboard heading into the U.S. open.Importantly, the revenue line itself wasn’t the story. <a href="https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37027043/revenue-keeps-growing-at-taiwan-semi-should-you-load-up-on-tsm-stock-for-2026" target='__blank'>TSMC</a> effectively pre-announces monthly sales, and the company had already telegraphed strong top-line momentum. Q4 revenue rose 20% year-over-year to NT$1.046T (about $33.73B in U.S. dollar terms, +26% y/y), so nobody was shocked by the scale of sales. The market’s focus was on the “quality” of that revenue: the earnings beat, the strength in gross margins, and the forward guide — all of which pointed to a business still running hot in the most valuable parts of the chip cycle.On the bottom line, TSMC posted net income of NT$505.74B, up 35% year-over-year, comfortably ahead of FactSet consensus around NT$469.13B. That beat mattered because it validated that the company isn’t just shipping more wafers — it’s doing so at strong profitability despite rising costs across equipment, labor, and global expansion. Management framed the quarter as being supported by “strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies,” and the numbers backed that up: margins held up extremely well even as TSMC continues to invest heavily in advanced nodes and packaging capacity.Gross margin strength was one of the key “tell” prints. In a quarter where investors could have easily been spooked by cost inflation or overseas ramp expenses, TSMC instead demonstrated that pricing, mix, and manufacturing execution are more than offsetting the headwinds. Commentary from the call emphasized that profitability is being supported by a combination of high utilization rates, manufacturing excellence, and node optimization (including converting some N5 capacity to support N3 where needed). The takeaway for investors was simple: this is not a company guiding you into a margin cliff to fund growth — it’s a company expanding into a structurally tight market while maintaining premium economics.Guidance was where the report shifted from “good quarter” to “sector catalyst.” For Q1 2026, TSMC guided revenue to $34.6B–$35.8B, implying a roughly 4% sequential increase and about a 38% year-over-year gain at the midpoint. That’s the kind of print that tells the market demand isn’t fading after the holiday quarter, and it adds confidence that the AI-led ramp is still accelerating. For the full year 2026, management said it expects close to 30% revenue growth in U.S. dollar terms — a constructive signal given ongoing macro uncertainty and the constant stream of “AI capex peak” skepticism that tends to show up the moment semis take a breath.Then came the headline that mattered most: capex. TSMC guided 2026 capital expenditures to $52B–$56B, a huge step up from the $40.9B spent in 2025, and far above where many investors were anchored for next year (Expectations were ~$48-50B). In other words, the company didn’t just say “demand is strong” — it put a number behind the conviction, and it’s a number that forces the entire semiconductor supply chain to revise assumptions upward. Management also disclosed that roughly 70%–80% of the 2026 capex budget will be allocated to advanced process technologies, reinforcing that this spending wave is aimed at feeding leading-edge AI and high-performance compute needs, not simply keeping the lights on.The call also provided crucial context on why capex is exploding. CEO C.C. Wei repeatedly framed the current environment as a multi-year AI megatrend with tight capacity. He noted that cloud service providers are directly requesting capacity, and he highlighted that engagement timelines have stretched out — as process complexity increases, planning with customers is happening two to three years in advance. In one of the most revealing moments, Wei addressed the elephant in the room (“is this an AI bubble?”) with blunt candor: he said he’s “very nervous” about AI demand because the capex commitment is so large, but that he has spent months speaking with customers and hyperscalers, reviewing evidence that AI is improving their businesses, and coming away “quite satisfied” demand is real. That’s not hype — that’s a CEO describing how you justify writing a $50B+ annual check.The report also helped investors understand what’s actually driving the revenue mix right now. High Performance Computing (HPC) accounted for 55% of Q4 revenue, up from 53% a year ago, underscoring that AI accelerators and data center workloads remain the growth engine. Smartphones represented 32% of revenue, down from 35% in the year-ago period — not because smartphones disappeared, but because HPC expanded faster and is taking a larger share of the pie. Geographically, North America remained dominant at 74% of total revenue (versus 75% a year ago), while China was 9% (steady year-over-year). That mix matters because it highlights two realities: TSMC’s most important growth customers are U.S.-based hyperscalers and AI leaders, and the company’s China exposure remains meaningful but not the central driver of the growth narrative.At the node level, the advanced technology mix stayed extremely elevated. 3nm represented 28% of wafer revenue in Q4 (up from 26% a year ago and 23% in the prior quarter), while 5nm represented 35% (roughly stable year-over-year), and 7nm contributed 14%. Taken together, the 7nm-and-below mix is doing the heavy lifting, which is exactly what you want to see if the market is trying to price a durable, high-margin AI cycle rather than a short-lived demand spike.TSMC also leaned into its global expansion strategy, and not as a defensive “geopolitical box-checking” exercise — but as a capacity buildout driven by customer demand. In Arizona, management noted that Fab 1 has already entered high-volume production, Fab 2 is complete with tool installation planned for 2026, and Fab 3 construction has started. The company is also applying for permits to begin construction of a fourth fab and an advanced packaging facility, and it has purchased additional land nearby to support what it described as an independent “gigafab cluster” in the U.S. This matters because it signals TSMC expects leading-edge demand to remain supply-constrained long enough to justify pulling forward timelines, even though fabs take years to build and capex deployed today won’t meaningfully relieve near-term tightness.That long lead time is a big piece of the bull case. Wei explicitly said new fabs take two to three years to build, meaning the 2026 capex surge has minimal contribution to 2026 supply and only partial help by 2027. The company is effectively investing for 2028–2029 balance, while relying on productivity gains and manufacturing optimization to narrow the demand gap in the meantime. That framing is what investors wanted: not “we’re spending a lot,” but “here’s why spending a lot is necessary, and here’s when it realistically shows up in output.”The immediate market reaction shows why this report mattered beyond TSMC itself. Semiconductor equipment stocks ripped higher premarket — Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA were among the biggest winners — because if TSMC is truly committing to a $52B–$56B budget with most of it aimed at advanced nodes, it implies a durable order pipeline for the entire tool chain. ASML moved higher as well, reflecting renewed confidence in leading-edge lithography demand. And on the AI compute side, the read-through was straightforward: Nvidia and AMD benefit when TSMC is expanding leading-edge capacity and signaling that hyperscaler demand remains real, persistent, and increasingly embedded in enterprise and consumer workflows.Bottom line: TSMC’s Q4 wasn’t a “nice beat” — it was a narrative reset for the tech sector. The revenue trend was known, but the earnings upside, margin durability, and confident forward outlook gave investors something they’ve been craving: proof that the AI infrastructure buildout is still running at speed, not rolling over. The capex guide was the clincher, because it effectively forces the market to treat this as a multi-year capacity cycle rather than a one-year spending spree. When the most important manufacturer in the AI supply chain says the bottleneck is still silicon — and then backs it up with $50B+ in annual investment — it’s hard for the market to stay skeptical for long. At least until the next rotation day, when traders remember they still have feelings.

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TSMC Just Lit the AI Fuse Again: The $56B Capex Bombshell That Sent Chip Stocks Flying

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Top Rated Stock: Non-AI Winners Ready to Break Out

BlackRock Inc. closed 2025 with assets under management surpassing $14 trillion, a milestone that underscores the firm’s expanding scale and its growing influence across global financial markets. The world’s largest asset manager reported $14.04 trillion in assets at year-end, following record net inflows of $698 billion during the year, including $342 billion in the fourth quarter, according to the company’s earnings release .The growth in assets reflects a combination of strong market performance and broad-based client demand across exchange-traded funds, active strategies, private markets, and cash management products. BlackRock said organic base fee growth reached 9% for the full year and accelerated to a 12% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, signaling that inflows were not concentrated in low-fee products alone but spread across higher-fee strategies as well .Laurence Fink, BlackRock’s chairman and chief executive, described 2025 as the strongest year of net inflows in the firm’s history. “Clients entrusted us with $698 billion of new assets in 2025, powering 9% organic base fee growth,” Mr. Fink said in the earnings release. He added that the company entered 2026 with “accelerating momentum across our entire platform” following back-to-back quarters of double-digit organic base fee growth.<visualization data='{&quot;components&quot;:[{&quot;show_type&quot;:&quot;jgyKline3&quot;,&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;codeName&quot;:&quot;name&quot;,&quot;marketTag&quot;:&quot;NYSE&quot;,&quot;variety&quot;:&quot;Stock&quot;,&quot;showBottom&quot;:true,&quot;moduleList&quot;:[&quot;MACD&quot;],&quot;maLine&quot;:[5,20,60]},&quot;title_config&quot;:{&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;display&quot;:true},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;h1&quot;:&quot;BlackRock Inc (BLK) - Stock Price&quot;}},&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;datas&quot;:[{&quot;code&quot;:&quot;BLK&quot;,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;BlackRock Inc&quot;,&quot;market_code&quot;:&quot;169&quot;}]},&quot;uuid&quot;:&quot;5e30bb9072f59f5d&quot;}],&quot;page&quot;:{&quot;layout&quot;:{&quot;layout_data&quot;:&quot;[{\&quot;showType\&quot;:\&quot;jgyKline3\&quot;,\&quot;uuid\&quot;:\&quot;5e30bb9072f59f5d\&quot;}]&quot;},&quot;render_for&quot;:&quot;aigc&quot;,&quot;tracking_info&quot;:{}}}' dataurl='undefined'></visualization>Financial results reflected the impact of that asset growth. BlackRock reported full-year revenue of $24.2 billion, up 19% from 2024, driven by higher average assets under management, organic fee growth, and contributions from recent acquisitions, including Global Infrastructure Partners, HPS Investment Partners, and Preqin. As-adjusted operating income rose 18% to $9.6 billion, while as-adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 10% to $48.09 .On a GAAP basis, results were more muted. GAAP operating income declined 7% from the prior year, and GAAP diluted earnings per share fell 16%, reflecting noncash acquisition-related expenses and a noncash charitable contribution that the company excluded from its as-adjusted figures .The composition of BlackRock’s assets highlights how the firm’s scale is increasingly tied to a diverse mix of investment strategies. Long-term assets totaled nearly $13 trillion at year-end, with exchange-traded funds accounting for more than $5.4 trillion. Private markets assets reached $322.6 billion, following net inflows of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter alone, while cash management assets stood at $1.08 trillion .The firm also emphasized shareholder returns alongside growth. BlackRock returned $5 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases. Its board approved a 10% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $5.73 per share and authorized an additional 7 million shares for repurchase under the existing buyback program.Looking ahead, BlackRock framed its scale as a strategic advantage rather than a constraint. Fink said 2026 would be the company’s first full year operating as a unified platform following its recent acquisitions, positioning it across public and private markets, technology, data, and digital assets. The firm reiterated its long-term goal of reaching $400 billion in private markets fundraising by 2030 .With assets now exceeding $14 trillion, BlackRock’s results illustrate how a combination of market strength, product breadth, and institutional scale continues to reshape the asset management industry, concentrating an ever-larger share of global investable capital under a single firm’s oversight.

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BlackRock Tops $14 Trillion in Assets as Record Inflows Reshape the World’s Largest Asset Manager

<ul><li>Q4 results beat across the board, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations and gross margin surging to an exceptional 62.3%, underscoring TSMC&#39;s growing pricing power in advanced nodes.</li><li>Advanced-node demand remains red-hot, as 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes accounted for a record 77% of revenue, driven by sustained AI chip demand led by Nvidia and resilient consumer electronics.</li><li>Forward guidance shocked the market, with management projecting nearly 30% revenue growth this year, record-high margins, and aggressive capex plans, reinforcing the view that the AI supercycle is far from over.</li></ul>AI still shows no signs of slowing. TSMC&#39;s latest fourth-quarter earnings once again beat expectations, while management guided that 2026 will be an even bigger harvest year. This earnings report effectively silences the skeptics who have been calling for the end of the AI boom.Looking at the <a href="https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/qr/phase4_reports/2026-01/e705390b89bf522ec4a8b20cb3e279e8ef1e5ed1/FS.pdf" target='__blank'>numbers</a> , TSMC reported revenue of $33.7 billion, up 25% year over year and 2% quarter over quarter, exceeding the top end of its prior guidance of $33.4 billion. Net income came in at $16.3 billion, up 41% year over year.The most striking figure was gross margin, which surged to 62.3%, up another 3.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. With a near-monopoly over advanced chip manufacturing for AI and high-end consumer electronics, TSMC now enjoys pricing power comparable to that of chip designers themselves.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;942e8b2a-09df-4f45-a01d-9516e00ac923&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/6b2c9233-194a-4cbc-8a81-9a3276a13273_Screenshot0115-1509_799bbd511768461968883.jpg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/6b2c9233-194a-4cbc-8a81-9a3276a13273_Screenshot0115-1509_799bbd511768461968883.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />3nm + 5nm + 7nm revenue nears 80%: Nvidia driving the surge?The earnings report shows that 3nm chips accounted for 28% of total revenue this quarter, up 5 percentage points sequentially and 2 points year over year. Part of this can certainly be attributed to strong holiday-season sales of the iPhone 17 series. However, a five-point sequential jump suggests Nvidia may also be playing a role. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation AI architecture after Blackwell, Rubin, entered production in the fourth quarter, and Jensen Huang previously requested TSMC expand 3nm capacity by 50%. Amid the AI frenzy, demand for advanced process nodes continues to surge, driving both volume and pricing higher.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;98f6ea2e-a525-44dc-ae93-ea59715e7969&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/e45e5588-d73d-4826-b06a-683917202923_Screenshot0115-1510_ff76aa811768461974868.jpg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/e45e5588-d73d-4826-b06a-683917202923_Screenshot0115-1510_ff76aa811768461974868.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Meanwhile, 5nm contributed 37% of revenue, down 2 percentage points quarter over quarter, indicating that more demand is shifting toward the cutting-edge 3nm process. Revenue contribution from 7nm was flat sequentially at 14%.Overall, 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm combined accounted for 77% of total revenue, a new record high. With consumer electronics and AI acting as twin growth engines, TSMC&#39;s moat remains rock-solid.By platform, revenue from high-performance computing (HPC) declined slightly to 55%, down 2 percentage points sequentially. Smartphone-related chips rose 2 points to 32%, reflecting stronger demand during the holiday shopping season. That said, AI-related products continue to show resilience regardless of the cycle.Revenue contribution from IoT chips (wearables, smart home devices) and automotive chips remained steady at 5%.AI demand still exploding; revenue expected to grow nearly 30% this yearDespite recurring doubts about an impending end to the AI cycle, TSMC&#39;s guidance suggests this is not even on the radar. The company expects first-quarter revenue of $34.6–35.8 billion, another record high, implying about 38% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. For the full year, revenue is projected to grow close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms. First-quarter gross margin is expected to reach 63%–65%. For context, Nvidia—a chip designer—posts gross margins around 75%, underscoring TSMC&#39;s extraordinary pricing power in advanced manufacturing.TSMC is also aggressively ramping capital expenditures to expand capacity and narrow the supply-demand gap. It expects capex of $52–56 billion this year, up 31% year over year, a notably aggressive plan, and noted that capital spending will rise significantly over the next three years. On the technology front, mass production of 2nm chips began in the fourth quarter. In terms of fabs, construction of the Germany plant is progressing; Japan&#39;s second fab has broken ground; and construction of the Arizona P2 fab in the U.S. has been completed, with production tools expected to be installed in 2026. The AI boom is far from over.Overall, TSMC&#39;s latest earnings modestly beat expectations, and its gross margin was staggering. But it is the guidance for this year and beyond that truly shocked the market. Even after two years of explosive growth, the company can still deliver high-speed expansion, reinforcing the view that the AI wave will persist well into the foreseeable future and solidifying its long-term investment narrative. This also signals that global tech giants will continue to ramp up AI spending, setting the stage for more strong earnings across the technology sector.

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TSMC Earnings Beat Estimates Again as AI Supercycle Continues, Guiding to an Even More Explosive Year Ahead

Fed's Kashkari: Crypto is basically useless for consumers

Energy, Miners, and Liquidity: The Forces Reshaping Bitcoin in 2026

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Hedge Fund Investors Likely to Shift Capital Toward Multi-Strategy Funds in 2026, BofA Says

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