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Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management Inc. has secured a major legal victory in its dispute with Stronghold Investment Management, a Texas-based private equity firm. A Delaware Chancery Court judge ruled that Stronghold breached an earlier settlement agreement by failing to meet deadlines for selling assets in an oil and gas fund managed by the firm. The ruling allows Elliott to proceed with liquidating the partnerships, which it had been seeking for months. Judge Bonnie David emphasized that Stronghold's delay in selling assets violated the terms of the 2022 settlement agreement between the two firms. The court has now ordered both parties to submit a wind-down plan for the two partnerships involved in the case. The decision was a direct response to Elliott's lawsuit filed in September 2025. Elliott's legal action accused Stronghold of charging excessive expenses and refusing to liquidate the partnerships, which are known as Fund II. The firm argued that Stronghold's inaction was breaching the contract. Stronghold, meanwhile, has denied wrongdoing, claiming it delivered strong returns and that Elliott's push for liquidation would force the sale of assets at a discount, harming other investors.<h2>Why the Standoff Happened</h2>Elliott first invested with Stronghold in 2017 to support oil and gas ventures. However, the relationship began to deteriorate in 2022, leading to a legal settlement that required Stronghold to sell Elliott-related assets by the end of 2023, with a possible extension through 2024. The firm did not meet the timeline, prompting Elliott to file suit. <backtest-component code="SPY" id="strategy_001" range="3" market="169"></backtest-component>The dispute has been a focal point in recent litigation involving private equity and asset management. Stronghold has warned that the liquidation would hurt more than 100 other investors, as the firm would have to sell assets at a discount to accommodate Elliott's demands. This has led to accusations from Stronghold that Elliott is prioritizing its short-term liquidity over the broader investor base. Elliott, on the other hand, has maintained that the settlement agreement was clear and that Stronghold's delay was a violation of its terms. The firm has long built a reputation as an aggressive activist investor, often pushing for structural changes in companies to unlock value. In this case, it argues that time is of the essence and that further delays only serve to devalue the assets.<h2>What This Means for Investors</h2>The court's ruling may force a significant shift in how Stronghold manages the partnerships. If the firm fails to comply with the wind-down order, it could face legal consequences or have to accelerate asset sales. This could result in further losses for investors who were not aligned with Elliott's strategy. For Elliott, the win represents a strategic success in a long-running legal battle. The firm has previously used the Delaware courts to enforce its interests in other investments, including its well-publicized activist campaigns in major corporations. This ruling may embolden Elliott to pursue similar legal actions in the future, reinforcing its position as a formidable player in the private equity space. Stronghold has not ruled out an appeal, with its legal team indicating that the firm would consider challenging the decision immediately. The outcome of any such appeal could set a precedent for future disputes involving private equity fund liquidations and contractual obligations. <h2>Risks to the Outlook</h2>The broader market may also take note of the ruling, especially in the private equity sector. The decision highlights the risks of relying on third-party managers to adhere to agreed-upon timelines and terms. It also underscores the importance of clear contractual language when structuring such agreements. Analysts have pointed out that the case could influence how similar disputes are handled in the future. If Elliott's approach becomes more common, it could signal a shift in investor expectations when it comes to liquidity and asset management. This may pressure private equity firms to be more transparent and timely in their operations. As both parties prepare to submit their wind-down proposals, the court is expected to play a key role in overseeing the transition. The final outcome will likely depend on how well each side can demonstrate its compliance with the settlement agreement while balancing the interests of all investors.

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Elliott Wins Court Order to Force Stronghold Fund Liquidation

A growing share of hedge-fund short positions has shifted toward consumer-oriented companies, according to proprietary data compiled by <a href="https://hazeltree.com/" target='__blank'>Hazeltree,</a> a treasury-management firm that aggregates anonymized position information from alternative asset managers.What the Smart Money Is Shorting Right Now 👇🏻<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_e3a3ae361766169156019.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_e3a3ae361766169156019.jpg&quot;}"></video>Hazeltree&#39;s Sr. Vice President of the Data Insights Division, in an interview with AInvest&#39;s Capital &amp; Power said that the trend emerged most clearly in Hazeltree’s November 2025 “short-side crowdedness” report. It tracks how many hedge funds hold short positions in specific securities. The data suggest that consumer names have become a focal point for bearish positioning after much of the year saw greater emphasis on technology and semiconductor stocks.“Out of the 90 securities that we covered…over 40, 45% of them were related to the consumer type of industry,” said Smith. The report covers large, mid and small-cap stocks across North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, with 10 securities per category and region .Hazeltree has provided treasury-management services to alternative asset managers for more than a decade. As part of that work, clients allow the firm to use their data in aggregated and anonymized form, enabling Hazeltree to publish derivative datasets that track positioning trends across the hedge-fund industry, Smith said .The company’s monthly report does not simply identify heavily shorted stocks by dollar value. Instead, it emphasizes what Smith described as “crowdedness,” a measure of how many hedge funds hold positions in a given security. “If there are 100 hedge funds [and] 99 of them are into a short position on a particular stock, we’d say that’s the highest level of crowdedness,” he said, distinguishing the concept from the absolute size of positions .<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Quote 6_5d987b851766166210935.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Quote 6_5d987b851766166210935.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />In November, that crowdedness increasingly appeared in consumer-related companies across regions. Smith cited European firms such as Pernod Ricard and Campari, U.S.-based companies including Marriott and Campbell Soup, and Asia-Pacific names such as Oriental Land and Ajinomoto as examples of where hedge funds were concentrating short exposure .The shift comes amid what Smith described as an unusually uncertain investing environment. He pointed to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, developments in artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, and broader macroeconomic questions as factors contributing to changing positioning patterns. “What we’re seeing is a slight…disturbance in the force,” Smith said, adding that long and short crowding have sometimes risen simultaneously in the same stocks, a divergence from more typical patterns in prior years .Hazeltree’s data also show evolving attitudes toward technology and AI-linked companies. Smith noted that Tesla, long a fixture near the top of crowdedness rankings, fell out of that position during the year, while other names tied to AI investment appeared. “It was a great surprise to me to see IBM coming on the top 10 a few months ago,” he said, adding that Palo Alto Networks had also featured prominently .According to Smith, hedge funds use crowdedness metrics as one input among many, including quantitative models and fundamental analysis. For other investors, the data can signal where “there’s a lot of scrutiny and a lot of pressure on share prices,” he said, though Hazeltree does not frame the report as investment advice .The firm covers roughly 15,000 global securities and tracks both physical holdings and swap positions, which Smith described as a distinguishing feature of its dataset. Access to such information, he said, is becoming broader as data flows more freely between institutional and retail segments of the market .As the year closes, Hazeltree plans to publish a year-end report summarizing trends across 2025. Smith cautioned against overconfidence in forecasting. “The only certain thing will be the level of uncertainty,” he said, adding that markets often stabilize as investors adjust to unpredictable conditions .

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Hedge-Fund Short Bets Tilt Toward Consumer Stocks, According to Hazeltree Data

Summary • Lowe's Companies (LOW) trades at $242.11, down 2.26% intraday, breaking below its 200-day moving average of $235.70 • Q3 earnings beat estimates but revised FY2025 guidance to $12.25 EPS, signaling cautious optimism • Options chain shows heavy call buying at $245–$247.5 strikes, with 5981 contracts traded at $245Lowe's Companies (LOW) is under pressure as shares trade 2.26% lower at $242.11, marking a sharp reversal from its 52-week high of $274.98. The stock’s intraday range of $241.31–$247.13 highlights volatility amid mixed earnings and sector dynamics. With the home improvement sector facing macroeconomic headwinds and Home Depot (HD) also down 2.27%, investors are scrutinizing whether this selloff is a correction or a deeper shift in market sentiment. <visualization dataUrl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_s3yk5n70.json"></visualization> Earnings Optimism Clashes with Macro Uncertainty Lowe’s Q3 earnings report, while exceeding EPS estimates at $3.06, revealed a contraction in operating margins to 11.9% and a $1.4 billion interest expense outlook. The stock’s decline reflects investor skepticism about the sustainability of its recent 8.4% rebound since the last earnings report. The FBM acquisition, while strategic, has added $8.8 billion in capital deployment and raised concerns about debt management. Analysts at Jefferies and Stifel have tempered expectations, with a mean price target of $274.08, suggesting the market is pricing in slower growth amid elevated interest rates and soft consumer demand.Home Improvement Sector Under Pressure as HD Mirrors LOW’s Slide The home improvement sector is broadly underperforming, with The Home Depot (HD) down 2.27% intraday. Both retailers face similar challenges: elevated mortgage rates, stagnant housing starts, and a shift in consumer spending toward essentials over discretionary upgrades. While Lowe’s reported 0.4% comparable sales growth, Home Depot’s Q3 revenue rose 2.8% to $41.35 billion, yet its Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) highlights deeper earnings concerns. The sector’s 4.2-month inventory-to-sales ratio also suggests a cooling market, pressuring both stocks despite divergent operational strategies.Options and ETF Plays for a Volatile Lowe’s Trade • MACD: 2.82 (above signal line 2.36), RSI: 58.3 (neutral), 200D MA: $235.70 (below current price) • Bollinger Bands: Upper $255.66, Middle $243.24, Lower $230.82 (price near lower band) • 30D/100D/200D MAs: $238.82, $246.59, $235.70 (bearish crossover at 30D/100D)Lowe’s is trading near its lower Bollinger Band and 200-day moving average, suggesting oversold conditions. A short-term bounce above $243.24 could trigger a test of the $247.50 resistance level. For options, LOW20251226C245 and LOW20251226C247.5 stand out. The former has a 213.55% leverage ratio and 0.29 delta, ideal for a moderate bullish play, while the latter offers 446.87% leverage and 0.17 delta for aggressive longs. Both contracts show high implied volatility (17.58%–17.17%) and liquidity (turnover 5981–31522).LOW20251226C245 (Call, $245 strike, 12/26 expiry): • IV: 17.58% (moderate) • Leverage: 213.55% (high) • Delta: 0.29 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.32 (high time decay) • Gamma: 0.0545 (high sensitivity to price swings) • Turnover: 5981 (liquid) • Payoff at 5% downside: $229.99 → $0 (no intrinsic value) • Payoff at 5% upside: $254.21 → $9.21 (245 strike, 9.21 profit) • Why it works: High leverage and liquidity make it ideal for a short-term rebound trade.LOW20251226C247.5 (Call, $247.5 strike, 12/26 expiry): • IV: 17.17% (moderate) • Leverage: 446.87% (very high) • Delta: 0.17 (low sensitivity) • Theta: -0.21 (moderate time decay) • Gamma: 0.0408 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: 31522 (highly liquid) • Payoff at 5% downside: $229.99 → $0 (no intrinsic value) • Payoff at 5% upside: $254.21 → $6.71 (247.5 strike, 6.71 profit) • Why it works: High leverage and turnover make it a speculative play for a sharp rally.Action: Aggressive bulls may consider LOW20251226C245 into a break above $247.50. Cautious traders should watch the $243.24 Bollinger Band support and $247.50 resistance for directional clarity. <visualization data="&quot;&quot;"></visualization> Backtest Lowe's Companies Stock Performance The performance of LOW after a -2% intraday plunge from 2022 to now has been backtested, showing the strategy's resilience with a 28.5% gain. This highlights the effectiveness of the strategy even with a smaller initial decline, suggesting it could be a robust approach for capturing mean reversion in such conditions.<visualization data="{&quot;components&quot;: [{&quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;container2&quot;, &quot;uuid&quot;: &quot;b4dc33d5-acb5-408c-869e-7ca1722093d8&quot;}, {&quot;support_refresh&quot;: false, &quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;jgyKline3&quot;, &quot;title_config&quot;: {&quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;title1&quot;, &quot;data&quot;: {&quot;h1&quot;: &quot;STI Trend&quot;, &quot;h2&quot;: &quot;&quot;}, &quot;config&quot;: {&quot;display&quot;: true, &quot;txt_style&quot;: 0, &quot;display2&quot;: false, &quot;url&quot;: &quot;&quot;}}, &quot;chart_type&quot;: &quot;&quot;, &quot;data&quot;: {&quot;condition&quot;: &quot;[{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:2,\&quot;opName\&quot;:\&quot;and\&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0},{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:0,\&quot;indexName\&quot;:\&quot; @stock code\&quot;,\&quot;indexProperties\&quot;:[\&quot;EQUAL STI.O\&quot;],\&quot;indexPropertiesMap\&quot;:{\&quot;EQUAL\&quot;:\&quot;STI.O\&quot;},\&quot;domain\&quot;:\&quot;abs_ \&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0},{\&quot;sonSize\&quot;:0,\&quot;indexName\&quot;:\&quot; @Closing Price\&quot;,\&quot;indexProperties\&quot;:[\&quot; 20251218\&quot;,\&quot; 20251218\&quot;],\&quot;indexPropertiesMap\&quot;:{\&quot; \&quot;:\&quot;20251218\&quot;,\&quot; \&quot;:\&quot;20251218\&quot;},\&quot;domain\&quot;:\&quot;abs_ \&quot;,\&quot;relatedSize\&quot;:0}]&quot;, &quot;status_code&quot;: 0, &quot;chunks_info&quot;: &quot;[]&quot;, &quot;columns&quot;: [{&quot;label&quot;: &quot;market_code&quot;, &quot;type&quot;: &quot;STR&quot;, &quot;index_name&quot;: &quot;market_code&quot;, &quot;key&quot;: &quot;market_code&quot;}, {&quot;label&quot;: &quot;hq_code&quot;, &quot;source&quot;: &quot;fixed_index&quot;, &quot;type&quot;: &quot;STR&quot;, &quot;index_name&quot;: &quot;code&quot;, &quot;key&quot;: &quot;code&quot;}, {&quot;unit&quot;: &quot;&quot;, &quot;domain&quot;: &quot;abs_ &quot;, &quot;label&quot;: &quot;code&quot;, &quot;source&quot;: &quot;fixed_index&quot;, &quot;feKey&quot;: &quot;Ticker&quot;, &quot;type&quot;: &quot;STR&quot;, &quot;index_name&quot;: &quot;Ticker&quot;, &quot;key&quot;: &quot;Ticker&quot;, &quot;origin_index&quot;: &quot;stock code&quot;}, {&quot;unit&quot;: &quot;&quot;, &quot;domain&quot;: &quot;abs_ &quot;, &quot;label&quot;: &quot;name&quot;, &quot;source&quot;: &quot;fixed_index&quot;, &quot;feKey&quot;: &quot;Name&quot;, &quot;type&quot;: &quot;STR&quot;, &quot;index_name&quot;: &quot;Name&quot;, &quot;key&quot;: &quot;Name&quot;, &quot;origin_index&quot;: &quot;stock name&quot;}, {&quot;label&quot;: &quot;date&quot;, &quot;feKey&quot;: &quot;Date&quot;, &quot;type&quot;: &quot;DATE&quot;, &quot;index_name&quot;: &quot;Date&quot;, &quot;key&quot;: &quot;Date&quot;, &quot;origin_index&quot;: &quot;Date&quot;}, {&quot;unit&quot;: &quot;USD&quot;, &quot;domain&quot;: &quot;abs_ &quot;, &quot;label&quot;: &quot;NoIndent&quot;, &quot;source&quot;: &quot;&quot;, &quot;feKey&quot;: &quot;Closing Price&quot;, &quot;type&quot;: &quot;DOUBLE&quot;, &quot;index_name&quot;: &quot; @Closing Price&quot;, &quot;key&quot;: &quot;Closing Price&quot;, &quot;timestamp&quot;: &quot;&quot;}], &quot;datas&quot;: [{&quot;code&quot;: &quot;STI&quot;, &quot;Ticker&quot;: &quot;STI.O&quot;, &quot;market_code&quot;: &quot;186&quot;, &quot;Closing Price&quot;: 6.04, &quot;Date&quot;: &quot;20251218&quot;, &quot;Name&quot;: &quot;Solidion Technology&quot;}], &quot;meta&quot;: {&quot;extra&quot;: {}}, &quot;dataSize&quot;: 1, &quot;status_msg&quot;: &quot;ok&quot;, &quot;code_count&quot;: 1, &quot;row_count&quot;: 1}, &quot;unique_key&quot;: &quot;1f816dc128e99507&quot;, &quot;kline&quot;: true, &quot;data_config&quot;: {&quot;data_ext_params&quot;: {&quot;data_add&quot;: 0, &quot;expand_index&quot;: false, &quot;add_index&quot;: 0, &quot;merge_repeat&quot;: false}, &quot;query_type&quot;: &quot;intusstock&quot;}, &quot;category&quot;: &quot;generic&quot;, &quot;renderBy&quot;: &quot;rule&quot;, &quot;config&quot;: {&quot;image&quot;: &quot;https://lh-prod-mid-pub-newsf10.s3.amazonaws.com/logo/STI.png&quot;, &quot;marketTag&quot;: &quot;NASDAQ&quot;, &quot;show_type_id&quot;: 702, &quot;tradeClass&quot;: &quot;intraday&quot;, &quot;title&quot;: &quot;K V2&quot;, &quot;fsType&quot;: &quot;closed&quot;, &quot;showBottom&quot;: true, &quot;showCodeContrast&quot;: false, &quot;score&quot;: 20, &quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;kline3&quot;, &quot;title_config&quot;: {&quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;title1&quot;, &quot;data&quot;: {&quot;h1&quot;: &quot;STI Trend&quot;, &quot;h2&quot;: &quot;&quot;}, &quot;config&quot;: {&quot;display&quot;: true, &quot;txt_style&quot;: 0, &quot;display2&quot;: false, &quot;url&quot;: &quot;&quot;}}, &quot;maLine&quot;: [5, 10, 30, 60], &quot;moduleList&quot;: [], &quot;variety&quot;: &quot;stock&quot;, &quot;scoreRuleNames&quot;: &quot;&quot;, &quot;tradeStatus&quot;: &quot;trading&quot;, &quot;codeName&quot;: &quot;Name&quot;, &quot;klineDefaultType&quot;: &quot;fs&quot;}, &quot;uuid&quot;: &quot;1f642ebaac90b83f&quot;}], &quot;query_condition&quot;: {&quot;domain&quot;: &quot;intusstock&quot;, &quot;uuids&quot;: [&quot;b4dc33d5-acb5-408c-869e-7ca1722093d8&quot;, &quot;1f642ebaac90b83f&quot;]}, &quot;global&quot;: {&quot;query_type&quot;: &quot;intusstock&quot;}, &quot;data_config&quot;: {&quot;data_ext_params&quot;: {&quot;data_add&quot;: 0, &quot;expand_index&quot;: false, &quot;add_index&quot;: 0, &quot;merge_repeat&quot;: false}, &quot;query_type&quot;: &quot;intusstock&quot;}, &quot;page&quot;: {&quot;layout&quot;: {&quot;layout_data&quot;: &quot;[{\&quot;children\&quot;: [{\&quot;uuid\&quot;: \&quot;1f642ebaac90b83f\&quot;, \&quot;children\&quot;: [], \&quot;showType\&quot;: \&quot;\&quot;}], \&quot;showType\&quot;: \&quot;container2\&quot;, \&quot;uuid\&quot;: \&quot;b4dc33d5-acb5-408c-869e-7ca1722093d8\&quot;}]&quot;}, &quot;render_for&quot;: &quot;aigc&quot;}}"></visualization>Lowe’s at a Crossroads: Defend $243.24 or Target $274.08 Lowe’s (LOW) faces a critical juncture as it tests its 200-day moving average and lower Bollinger Band. A close above $247.50 could reignite the 8.4% rally seen post-earnings, aligning with the $274.08 analyst price target. However, a breakdown below $243.24 would signal deeper bearish momentum, potentially dragging the stock toward its 52-week low of $206.39. The sector leader, Home Depot (HD), is also down 2.27%, underscoring systemic risks. Investors should prioritize LOW20251226C245 for a short-term rebound or LOW20251226P232.5 for downside protection. Watch for $243.24 support or a $247.50 breakout to dictate next steps.

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Lowe's (LOW) Plummets 2.26%: Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign?

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Nvidia's 3.6% Surge: Regulatory Greenlight and Analyst Upgrades Ignite AI Chipmaker's Rally

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_53880f161766151427098.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_53880f161766151427098.jpeg&quot;}"></video>Nike’s fiscal <a href="https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2025/NIKE-Inc--Reports-Fiscal-2026-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx" target='__blank'>second-quarter report</a> delivered exactly the kind of result that frustrates investors the most: a clean beat on earnings and revenue, paired with guidance and commentary that undercut confidence in the near-term trajectory. Shares are down roughly 11% in premarket trading, hovering around $58, as the market looks past the headline beat and refocuses on margins, China, tariffs, and the still-unfinished nature of the company’s turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. With the stock now flirting with levels that invite comparisons to the April tariff-driven low near $52, the question is no longer whether Nike beat expectations this quarter, but whether investors are willing to wait through what management openly calls the “middle innings” of the recovery. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/nike-nke-q2-2026-earnings.html" target='__blank'>On the surface</a> , Nike’s Q2 results were better than feared. Earnings per share came in at $0.53, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations near $0.38, while revenue of $12.43 billion topped estimates of $12.22 billion and rose 1% year over year. North America once again provided the bright spot, with revenue up 9% to $5.63 billion, reinforcing management’s claim that the region is “leading the way” and offering a blueprint for what success could look like elsewhere. Wholesale revenue climbed 8% to $7.5 billion, reflecting improved relationships with partners after years of strategic whiplash. However, those positives were overshadowed by continued weakness in Greater China, where revenue fell 17% to $1.42 billion, an acceleration from the prior quarter’s decline and a clear signal that the China reset is not progressing fast enough to satisfy investors.That China weakness sits at the center of today’s selloff. Management was candid on the call, acknowledging that improvements in the region “are not happening at the level or the pace we need to drive wider change.” Analysts quickly picked up on that message, with several highlighting that China is now expected to remain a drag through the remainder of fiscal 2026. Bank of America estimates that China will comprise just 13% of sales in FY26, down meaningfully from peak levels, while Citi warned that the extended reset complicates expectations for a smooth recovery in FY27. In a market that has grown intolerant of open-ended turnarounds, that lack of a clear China inflection point weighed heavily.Margins added another layer of discomfort. Nike reported a gross margin of 40.6%, down 300 basis points year over year. While that decline was slightly less severe than the 320-basis-point contraction seen in the prior quarter, it still reinforced the reality that profitability remains under pressure. Management attributed the margin erosion primarily to higher tariffs in North America, inventory obsolescence in Greater China that was not anticipated 90 days ago, and continued promotional activity tied to clearing older product. Importantly, this was not framed as a one-off issue. Looking ahead, Nike guided for gross margin to decline another 175 to 225 basis points in the fiscal third quarter, including an estimated 315-basis-point hit from tariffs alone. Excluding tariffs, management argued that margins would actually expand, but investors showed little appetite for “ex-tariff” narratives when reported margins are still moving in the wrong direction.The mix shift within the business is also complicating the margin story. Wholesale growth has returned, but that comes at the expense of higher-margin direct channels. Nike Direct revenue fell 8% to $4.6 billion, with Nike Digital down 14% and Nike-owned stores down 3%. This reversal is partly intentional, as management works to restore a more balanced distribution strategy, but it has near-term consequences for profitability. Clearing excess inventory and resetting assortments has helped reduce inventories by 3% year over year to $7.7 billion, yet higher product costs driven by tariffs mean inventory dollars remain elevated even as unit counts fall.Against this backdrop, Nike’s guidance was the decisive blow. The company expects fiscal third-quarter revenue to decline by a low single-digit percentage, compared with analyst expectations that had been leaning toward modest growth. North America is projected to deliver modest gains, while Greater China and Converse are expected to perform similarly to Q2, implying no near-term relief from those troubled areas. Converse, in particular, remains a persistent drag, with revenue down 30% year over year this quarter, following a 27% decline in Q1. The lack of full-year guidance, a pattern Nike has maintained throughout the turnaround, further amplified uncertainty.Tariffs remain a critical overhang. Nike manufactures roughly half of its footwear in Vietnam, and management was explicit that tariffs on imports from the region are continuing to pressure gross margins and inflate product costs. Executives quantified the tariff impact repeatedly, framing it as a multi-hundred-basis-point headwind that overwhelms underlying operational improvements. While Nike is taking actions to mitigate these costs over time, the current environment leaves little room for optimism that tariffs will ease meaningfully in the near term.From a turnaround perspective, the plan itself appears coherent, if incomplete. CEO Elliott Hill emphasized progress under the “Win Now” strategy, including rightsizing the Classics business, rebalancing the product portfolio, investing in sport-led innovation, and restructuring leadership to accelerate decision-making. North America’s performance offers tangible proof points, and new product initiatives such as Structure 26, Nike Mind, and Aero-FIT are intended to reignite innovation momentum. However, management was clear that recovery will be nonlinear, with different geographies moving at different speeds — language that rarely reassures a market looking for cleaner timelines.At roughly $58 in premarket trading, Nike shares are approaching a critical technical juncture. A decisive break lower could bring the April low near $52 back into focus, a level established during the height of tariff-related anxiety. For now, investors appear unconvinced that the worst is over, choosing instead to demand clearer evidence that margins can stabilize and China can recover. Until those boxes are checked, Nike’s earnings beats may continue to be met with skepticism rather than celebration — a reminder that in a turnaround story, guidance and credibility matter far more than a single quarter’s upside surprise.

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