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<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Episode 22_56bf910e1770820585182.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HZI2nC2fNlI&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Episode 22_56bf910e1770820585182.jpg&quot;}"></video>U.S. stocks edged higher shortly after the opening bell Wednesday as investors digested January’s employment report and assessed the outlook for interest rates.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 242.90 points, or 0.48%, to 50431.0. The S&amp;P 500 added 50.75 points, or 0.73%, to 6992.56, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 208.61 points, or 0.90%, to 23311.1. The Russell 2000 advanced 2.14 points, or 0.81%, to 268.31.The gains followed the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/jobs-blowout-shocks-wall-street-yields-spike-4-20-eyes-7-000-june-rate-cut-odds-collapse-2602/" target='__blank'>January employment report,</a> which showed total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. The BLS said job gains occurred in health care, social assistance and construction, while federal government and financial activities shed positions. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in January to $37.17, up 3.7% from a year earlier, according to the agency.Revisions were notable. The change in total nonfarm employment for 2025 was revised from +584,000 to +181,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the March 2025 level was revised downward by 898,000 after benchmarking to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the BLS said.Treasury markets have been closely tracking labor-market signals. Bloomberg reported that “US Treasuries edged higher ahead of January’s delayed employment report, which may fan expectations of deeper interest-rate cuts this year.” The 10-year yield was down one basis point at 4.13% on Wednesday, its lowest level in five weeks, while the two-year yield was at 3.45%, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/us-treasuries-steady-as-traders-await-delayed-us-payrolls-data?srnd=homepage-americas" target='__blank'>according to Bloomberg.</a> “The labor market appears to hold the key to the path of rates,” said Brendan Murphy, Head of Fixed Income, North America at Insight Investment, as quoted by Bloomberg. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has noted signs of stabilization in the labor market, the US government shutdown and ongoing political risks mean the Fed would likely “be responsive to any additional signs of labor-market deterioration,” Murphy added.Separate analysis from Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, highlighted the relationship between economic surprises and long-term rates, noting in a chart titled “10-Year Yields Should Be Higher” that the Citi Economic Surprise Index has moved higher alongside the 10-year yield.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/021126_Chart_V2_cc0b0c481770820739159.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/021126_Chart_V2_cc0b0c481770820739159.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Investors now face a crosscurrent: benchmark revisions that suggest weaker underlying job growth in 2025, steady wage gains that could keep inflation pressures in view, and bond yields that remain near multiweek lows. With equity indexes hovering near record levels, the trajectory of long-term rates—and whether incoming data continues to surprise to the upside—may determine whether the rally can extend.

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How January’s Jobs Report and Rate Signals Are Driving Stocks Higher at the Open


<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_4fc1a4a31770817950157.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_4fc1a4a31770817950157.jpg&quot;}"></video>The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target='__blank'>January jobs report</a> delivered a clear upside surprise, reinforcing the view that the U.S. labor market remains sturdier than many had feared. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, well above consensus expectations of roughly 65,000–70,000. That compares with a revised 48,000 in December (previously 50,000) and 41,000 in November (previously 56,000). While the prior two months were revised down by a combined 17,000, the January beat more than offset that modest downgrade and reasserted a narrative of underlying resilience.The unemployment rate also surprised modestly to the downside, ticking in at 4.3% versus expectations of 4.4%. While still above the 4.0% level seen a year ago, the steady rate suggests that labor market cooling has not accelerated meaningfully. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, and the employment-population ratio remained largely unchanged at 59.8%, signaling stability rather than deterioration.Wage data leaned firm as well. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, translating to a 3.7% year-over-year increase, slightly above the 3.6% consensus forecast. Production and nonsupervisory earnings also climbed 0.4% on the month. For policymakers, that combination—solid payroll growth and firm wage gains—keeps inflation risks in focus and complicates the case for near-term rate cuts.From a sector perspective, strength was concentrated in health care, social assistance, and construction. Health care led the way, adding 82,000 jobs, with particularly strong gains in ambulatory services and hospitals. Social assistance added 42,000, and construction increased by 33,000, reflecting nonresidential specialty trade strength. In contrast, federal government employment declined by 34,000 as deferred resignations continued to roll off payrolls, and financial activities shed 22,000 jobs. Factory employment rose modestly by 5,000, defying expectations for a decline.The broader household survey painted a similar picture of steadiness. The number of unemployed held near 7.4 million. The U-6 underemployment rate stood at 8.0%, and long-term unemployment was little changed at 1.8 million, though still higher than a year ago. Notably, the number of workers employed part time for economic reasons declined sharply by 453,000 to 4.9 million, a constructive sign for labor quality.One of the most closely watched components of this release was the annual benchmark revision process. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2025 was revised downward by 862,000, or -0.5 percent. Expectations heading into the report had centered around a potential downward adjustment of approximately 825,000 jobs to prior payroll estimates. While the annual benchmarking process and seasonal factor updates did contribute to revisions, the November and December combined adjustments totaled just 17,000 lower than previously reported. The January headline itself was not materially dragged down by benchmark effects, which helped alleviate concerns of a significantly weaker underlying trend.Markets reacted swiftly. Equity futures initially popped higher, with the S&amp;P 500 briefly surging toward the 6,985 level, setting up a potential test of the psychologically significant 7,000 threshold. The knee-jerk response reflected relief that the economy is not slipping into a more abrupt slowdown. However, that optimism was tempered by the implications for monetary policy.The bond market’s reaction was more definitive. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped roughly 8 basis points, spiking toward 4.20% shortly after the data. Short-term rate futures dropped as traders pared back expectations for aggressive easing. Investors should keep in mind that a $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction is scheduled for 1:00 p.m., which could further influence rate volatility depending on demand.In the wake of the report, expectations for a June rate cut fell sharply. The probability of a June cut slipped from approximately 96% prior to the data to roughly 70% afterward. At the same time, July expectations firmed to about 95%, effectively placing both meetings in play for markets. The repricing suggests that while the Fed may still cut rates this summer, it is unlikely to feel urgency after such a resilient jobs print. The market’s second rate cut is now not expected until October, underscoring a more gradual easing path.The broader policy backdrop remains delicate. Federal Reserve officials have consistently emphasized data dependence. A labor market that continues to generate payroll gains above trend and maintain wage growth near 4% complicates the argument for immediate easing, especially with inflation still above target. At the same time, payroll growth averaging just 15,000 per month over 2025 prior to January had raised concerns about stalling momentum. January’s stronger print helps counter that narrative but does not erase the broader cooling trend.Another nuance worth noting is productivity and labor force dynamics. The participation rate’s stability suggests limited additional supply entering the workforce. Meanwhile, average weekly hours ticked up slightly to 34.3, and manufacturing hours also edged higher. These incremental improvements add to the perception that labor demand remains intact.In sum, the January jobs report came in stronger than expected across headline payrolls, unemployment, and wages. Sector strength in health care, social assistance, and construction offset ongoing federal and financial sector weakness. Markets responded with an initial equity bounce and a meaningful rise in Treasury yields, reflecting reduced urgency for rate cuts.With the 10-year yield back near 4.20% and the S&amp;P 500 flirting with the 7,000 level, the next leg in markets will likely hinge on how investors interpret this resilience: as confirmation of a soft landing, or as a reason for the Fed to stay patient longer than bulls would prefer.

us_middle_importance

Jobs Blowout Shocks Wall Street: Yields Spike to 4.20% as S&P Eyes 7,000 and June Rate Cut Odds Collapse

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_6c9e4b141770816479686.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_6c9e4b141770816479686.jpg&quot;}"></video>Shares of Robinhood (HOOD) are under pressure following its <a href="https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/b2f8b742-6b7f-430d-9a42-3b06d5040bda" target='__blank'>furth-quarter results</a> , sliding roughly 7% in premarket trade and setting up for a potential retest of the February lows near $71. While the headline numbers were not disastrous—and in some areas were solid—the combination of a revenue shortfall, weakness in crypto activity, and a cautious tone around near-term trading volumes appears to be weighing on sentiment.On the surface, the <a href="https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/f614a824-52c7-42e3-838e-b1b8f5b05a55" target='__blank'>quarter</a> looked mixed. Robinhood reported Q4 EPS of $0.66, ahead of consensus expectations around $0.63–$0.64 and roughly in line with bullish analyst models. Revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.28 billion but missed expectations of approximately $1.34–$1.35 billion. The earnings beat was helped by slightly better expense control and a lower tax rate, but investors clearly focused on the top-line miss, particularly given how dependent the model remains on transaction-based activity.Transaction-based revenue rose 15% year over year to $776 million. Within that segment, equities revenue surged 54% and options revenue climbed 41%, both reflecting elevated trading engagement during much of 2025. Options revenue in particular stood out at $314 million, reinforcing Robinhood’s continued dominance among active retail traders. Equity notional volumes rose 68% year over year to a record $710 billion, while options contracts traded increased 38% to 659 million. These are not the metrics of a platform in retreat.However, crypto revenue was the weak link. Cryptocurrency revenue fell 38% year over year to $221 million. Notional crypto trading volumes were $82 billion overall, but Robinhood app crypto volumes declined 52% year over year to $34 billion, partially offset by Bitstamp volumes of $48 billion. With crypto-linked revenue historically a key swing factor in Robinhood’s results, the decline underscores the cyclicality embedded in the model. Analysts expect crypto volumes to remain soft over the next couple of quarters before potentially rebounding.Net interest revenue was another bright spot, increasing 39% year over year to $411 million. This was driven by growth in interest-earning assets and margin balances, though partially offset by lower short-term rates. The margin book jumped 113% year over year to a record $16.8 billion, reflecting strong client appetite for leverage during much of the year. Cash sweep balances rose 26% to $32.8 billion. These trends support the idea that Robinhood is evolving beyond purely transaction-driven revenue.Beyond trading, Robinhood continues to diversify. Gold subscribers increased 58% year over year to 4.2 million, helping drive 109% growth in “other revenues.” Subscription revenue tied to Gold rose 56%. Retirement assets under custody more than doubled to $26.5 billion, and over 40% of total platform assets now sit across ETFs, advisory, retirement, and cash. Total platform assets climbed 68% year over year to $324 billion, supported by $15.9 billion in Q4 net deposits and $68 billion in deposits for the full year.Prediction markets remain a notable growth engine. Event contracts traded reached a record 8.5 billion in Q4 and 12 billion for the full year. Management highlighted this as one of the fastest-growing products in company history, with January volumes already hitting new highs. The firm is also working to internalize more of the economics by building a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, potentially improving long-term margins in that segment.From a profitability standpoint, adjusted EBITDA increased 24% year over year to $761 million in Q4, and full-year adjusted EBITDA hit $2.5 billion with margins of 56%. Adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation rose 18% year over year in Q4, slightly below management’s prior outlook. For 2026, Robinhood guided to adjusted operating expenses and SBC of $2.6–$2.725 billion, representing roughly 18% growth at the midpoint as the company invests in product velocity, marketing, international expansion, and integration of acquisitions like Bitstamp and TradePMR.Analyst reaction has been constructive but more cautious on near-term revenue. Citizens reiterated an Outperform rating and a $180 price target, citing better expense performance and a broadening revenue base. Needham maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $100, reflecting weaker crypto volumes and some seasonality assumptions in trading activity.Strategically, management emphasized its “Financial SuperApp” vision and a three-part strategy: leading in active traders, increasing wallet share among the next generation, and building a global financial ecosystem. International expansion is underway, with roughly 750,000 customers outside the U.S. and deeper product rollouts planned in the U.K. and EU.The key driver of the stock’s weakness appears to be the crypto slowdown and broader trading pullback heading into 2026. Crypto volumes are down sharply year over year, and both options and equity trading have shown signs of moderation more recently. Given that transaction-based revenue still represents more than half of total net revenue, any cyclical slowdown in retail trading flows has an outsized impact on the narrative.Technically, the stock’s 7% post-earnings decline sets up a potential retest of the February lows around $71. A break below that level could invite further pressure, particularly if crypto remains under stress. Conversely, stabilization in crypto volumes or renewed retail engagement could quickly shift sentiment, given the platform’s strong deposit growth and expanding product suite.In sum, Robinhood delivered solid EPS, strong engagement metrics, and continued diversification progress. But the revenue miss and sharp decline in crypto activity highlight the cyclicality still embedded in the model. Investors are now recalibrating expectations for 2026 growth, weighing near-term volume softness against long-term platform expansion and improving business mix.

Cryptocurrency

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Robinhood Beats on Earnings — But Is the Crypto Crash About to Send HOOD Back to $71?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. 

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures
labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment
survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information
about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical
Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.4
million, changed little in January. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the
jobless rate was 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. (See table
A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in
January. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), and people
who are White (3.7 percent), Black (7.2 percent), Asian (4.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.7
percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little in
January at 1.8 million but is up by 386,000 from a year earlier. The long-term unemployed
accounted for 25.0 percent of all unemployed people in January. (See table A-12.)

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, and the employment-population ratio,
at 59.8 percent, changed little in January. These measures have shown little change over the
year. (See table A-1.)

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 453,000 to 4.9
million in January but is up by 410,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred
full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they
were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

In January, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job decreased by
399,000 to 5.8 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not
actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take
a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached
to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in January. These individuals wanted and were
available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of
the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little
at 475,000 in January. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January. Job gains occurred in health
care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities
lost jobs. Payroll employment changed little in 2025 (+15,000 per month on average). (See
table B-1. See the note at the end of this news release and table A for more information about
the annual benchmark process.) 

Health care added 82,000 jobs in January, with gains in ambulatory health care services
(+50,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+13,000). Job
growth in health care averaged 33,000 per month in 2025. 

Employment in social assistance increased by 42,000 in January, primarily in individual and
family services (+38,000).

Construction added 33,000 jobs in January, reflecting an employment gain in nonresidential
specialty trade contractors (+25,000). Employment in construction was essentially flat in 2025.

In January, federal government employment continued to decline (-34,000) as some federal
employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer in 2025 came off federal payrolls. Since
reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 327,000, or 10.9
percent.

Financial activities employment declined by 22,000 in January and is down by 49,000 since
reaching a recent peak in May 2025. Within the industry, insurance carriers and related
activities lost 11,000 jobs over the month.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining,
quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade;
transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; leisure and
hospitality; and other services.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15
cents, or 0.4 percent, to $37.17. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 3.7 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and
nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $31.95. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to
34.3 hours in January. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.1
hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 15,000, from
+56,000 to +41,000, and the change for December was revised down by 2,000, from +50,000 to
+48,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 17,000 lower
than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from
businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the
recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the
November and December revisions.)

January Jobs Report

Summary:Global gold ETF holdings saw significant reshuffling during the week ending February 6, 2026. As gold prices experienced &quot;heaven to earth&quot; volatility, institutional sentiment diverged sharply between Western liquidations and a strategic flight to Swiss-vaulted physical gold.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/IMG_92681_705e17171770812929666.jpeg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/IMG_92681_705e17171770812929666.jpeg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Institutional Movement Breakdown:• The Swiss Surge: In a notable move toward physical security, Swiss-based ETFs dominated the inflow charts. SWISSCANTO (CH) Gold ETF and Pictet (CH) Precious Metals Fund added a combined 160 tons, signaling a major regional preference for safe-haven assets.• US &amp; European Outflows: Major Western ETFs faced selling pressure. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF, saw a reduction of 10.97 tons. Similar trends were observed in the UK and Germany, with Invesco Physical Gold ETC shedding 8.44 tons.• Mixed Sentiment in Asia: The Chinese market showed no clear consensus. While ChinaAMC and ICBC recorded modest gains, larger funds like Huaan Gold ETF saw outflows of nearly 2 tons.Investor Takeaway:The divergence suggests that while some institutional players are taking profits or meeting margin calls following price swings, others are positioning for long-term stability by moving capital into physical Swiss storage.Keywords: Gold ETF holdings, SPDR Gold Shares GLD, Swiss Gold ETF, Gold Market Analysis 2026, Institutional Gold Inflows, Gold Price Volatility.

SPDR Gold Shares

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