On Semiconductor Outlook - Navigating a Technical Standoff and Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway:

News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector are shaping investor sentiment:

• McKinsey Report on Tariffs: New research by McKinsey suggests that U.S. tariff policies will have a significant impact on semiconductor supply chains. While the current legal uncertainty remains, long-term sector adjustments could affect companies like ON.
• Japan-U.S. Rare Earths Cooperation: Japan is proposing joint cooperation with the U.S. on rare earth and semiconductor materials, potentially offering a counter to China’s dominance and stabilizing supply chains in the long run.
• Semiconductors ETF Outflows: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) saw a net outflow of $750 million in May 2025. While this may reflect broader market jitters, it could also signal a shift in investor focus toward crypto-related assets.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

On Semiconductor faces a mixed analytical landscape:

• Average Analyst Rating: A simple mean of recent analyst ratings stands at 3.00.
• Weighted Analyst Rating: When weighted for historical performance, the score drops to 1.65, indicating a more cautious stance.
• Analyst Consistency: Analysts are not aligned, with diverging views, and recent forecasts from B of A Securities have been neutral in tone.
• Price Trend vs. Analyst Expectations: The stock has fallen by 2.68% recently, and this price action aligns with the overall weighted pessimism seen in analyst ratings.
• Key Fundamental Factor Values:
  • Net Profit Growth YoY: -139.91% (model score: 1.01).
  • Basic EPS Growth YoY: -141.08% (model score: 1.01).
  • Net Cash Flow from Operations per Share YoY: -93.11% (model score: 1.01).
  • EV/EBIT: -43.19 (model score: 1.01).
  • Cash-to-Market Value Ratio: -0.85 (model score: 1.01).
  These fundamentals highlight a firm in transition, with most metrics signaling weakness and low internal diagnostic scores.

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the recent price decline, fund-flow data for ON is mostly positive. Large, extra-large, and

Key Technical Signals

On Semiconductor's technical outlook is currently neutral, with a technical score of 5.21, which reflects a wait-and-see stance:

• Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):
  • 2025-09-15: No new signals recorded.
  • 2025-09-10: MACD Death Cross appears, suggesting bearish momentum.
  • 2025-09-11: MACD Golden Cross indicates a bullish turnaround.
  • 2025-09-03: MACD Death Cross and Bearish Engulfing chart signals emerge.
  • 2025-09-08: MACD Golden Cross appears again, reinforcing potential for a reversal.
• Indicator Diagnostic Scores (Internal diagnostic scores, 0-10):
  • WR Overbought: 1.59 – Weak signal with poor historical performance.
  • Bearish Engulfing: 7.77 – Strong bearish signal with high win rate (77.78%).
  • MACD Death Cross: 6.92 – Moderate bearish signal with 64.29% win rate.
  • MACD Golden Cross: 5.71 – Neutral bullish signal with 57.14% win rate.
  • Marubozu White: 4.05 – Weak bullish signal with only 50.0% win rate.
• Key Insights: The technical indicators are mixed, with no clear trend. Momentum is volatile, and the chart signals are contradictory, suggesting a need to monitor for further clarity.

Conclusion

On Semiconductor remains in a technical standoff, with no clear bullish or bearish bias from the market. While institutional money flows remain positive, the fundamentals and analyst consensus point to caution. With internal diagnostic scores averaging a modest 5.21, and recent chart signals showing conflicting patterns, the best course of action may be to wait for clearer momentum before entering or adding to positions. Investors should keep an eye on any upcoming earnings reports and sector-specific news for potential catalysts in the coming weeks.