Eli Lilly: Bulls vs. Bears as Resistance Holds and Catalysts Loom

Eli

From the bull camp, analysts remain upbeat. UBS sees Lilly as “a clear leader in obesity” and is forecasting a strong Q2 print, noting it's 15% ahead of consensus on Zepbound prescriptions. While Jardiance, Verzenio, and Taltz may drag slightly, UBS still models revenue 2% above consensus overall. Citi, meanwhile, maintains a $1,190 price target, betting big on the potential of orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug. Citi estimates the consumer-focused platform could be worth $15B and believes LillyDirect could provide a unique edge in delivering obesity treatment at scale, especially in international markets.

Supporting the bullish outlook is the upcoming SURPASS-CVOT readout. Guggenheim believes non-inferiority of Mounjaro versus Trulicity is “likely,” and “superiority is possible,” which could add 5–10% to the stock. Combine that with new GLP-1 data suggesting long-term patient retention is improving, and investors have reason to be optimistic.

Also fueling the long-term bull case are strategic acquisitions. The $1.3B buyout of

But despite these positives, the bears are growing louder—and more data-driven.

From a valuation standpoint,

Technicals add fuel to this caution. Since peaking in August 2024, LLY has struggled to hold above its 50-week moving average. The 20-week has now crossed below the 50-week—a bearish signal—while lower highs continue to pile up. Until bulls can clear the $820 resistance and reclaim key MAs, sellers appear to have the upper hand.

Adding to the unease are macro risks. The healthcare sector has lagged badly this year amid policy headwinds from Medicare drug pricing to reimbursement uncertainty in Europe. Manufacturing concerns at Lilly—under DOJ scrutiny due to whistleblower complaints—are another overhang. And while the anti-obesity drug market remains massive, with

As for competition,

So what should investors watch?

First, the Q2 earnings report is pivotal. Strong uptake in Zepbound and clarity on Mounjaro growth will help assess whether Lilly's pipeline and commercialization strategy are on track. Second, the SURPASS-CVOT results due this quarter could be a game changer—either confirming cardiovascular superiority or dashing hopes. Third, any updates on orforglipron’s regulatory timeline and commercial strategy, especially via LillyDirect, will be key to modeling future growth.

Lastly, from a technical standpoint, all eyes are on the $820 breakout level. A clean move above that—preferably on volume—would invalidate the descending triangle and shift momentum back to the bulls.

For now, LLY remains one of the most polarizing names in healthcare. The bulls see a generational opportunity in GLP-1s, consumer health, and gene editing. The bears see a richly valued giant that’s struggling to justify its premium. With major catalysts ahead and a technical chart at a breaking point, resolution is coming soon.