Bank of Japan Holds Key Rate at 0.5% Amid Global Trade Uncertainties and Mixed Inflation Signals

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key interest rate at 0.5% during its latest two-day policy review meeting, in line with widespread market expectations [1]. This marks the fourth consecutive session in which the central bank has held rates steady, as it continues to adopt a cautious stance amid global trade uncertainties and mixed domestic inflation signals. The BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to a data-dependent approach, emphasizing the need to avoid pre-conceived policy assumptions and to monitor evolving economic conditions before taking further action [1].

The BoJ’s latest quarterly Outlook Report indicates that underlying inflation is expected to slow in the short term due to weaker economic growth, but gradually rise in the later part of the projection period, broadly aligning with its 2% inflation target from fiscal 2025 to 2027. However, the central bank warned that downside risks remain significant, particularly in the context of potential trade policy changes and their broader economic implications [1]. The decision to maintain the accommodative stance also reflects uncertainty stemming from the ruling coalition's recent defeat in Japan’s upper house elections, alongside the ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and U.S. tariff implications [1].

Market reactions were swift, with the USD/JPY pair falling to 148.50, signaling a 0.54% drop for the day as the Japanese Yen strengthened against major currencies [1]. This performance aligns with expectations from analysts, with 56 out of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting the BoJ would keep rates unchanged [2]. The central bank is also expected to revise its inflation forecasts in the current fiscal year, factoring in the continued rise in food and rice prices, a development previously reported by Reuters based on internal discussions at the BoJ [1].

According to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation excluding fresh food items increased by 2.9% year-on-year in July, slightly below the market forecast of 3.0%. Meanwhile, food inflation—excluding fresh items—accelerated to 7.4%, reinforcing upward pressures on the overall inflation trajectory [1]. Despite this, the BoJ has not signaled a near-term shift toward tighter monetary policy, underscoring its preference for a patient and measured approach.

Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida recently emphasized the need to remain vigilant regarding both inflation and growth risks, while Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the importance of maintaining a flexible and responsive policy stance [1]. The tone and language in the BoJ’s official policy statement and Ueda’s press conference remarks will play a critical role in shaping market expectations. Should the BoJ continue to express patience, the JPY may face renewed downward pressure against the USD. Conversely, any concerns over rising food costs and inflation could support a stronger Yen.

FXStreet analyst Dhwani Mehta noted that the USD/JPY pair remains in a technically bullish position, with the 14-day RSI above the midline. Key technical support levels were identified at the 21-day SMA (147.04), the 100-day SMA (145.70), and a potential bearish test at the 200-day SMA (149.58) [1].

Overall, the BoJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged highlights its balanced and cautious strategy in navigating the complex domestic and global economic environment. While food price pressures persist, the central bank is maintaining a watchful stance, and markets will closely monitor any subtle shifts in tone from policy officials in the coming months [1].

Source:

[1] Bank of Japan Set to Keep Rates Unchanged Amid Political Instability, U.S.-Japan Trade Deal (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-japan-set-to-keep-rates-unchanged-amid-political-instability-us-japan-trade-deal-202507302300)

[2] BOJ to Hold Rate Steady with Likely Upgrade to Price View (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/boj-to-hold-rate-steady-with-likely-upgrade-to-price-view-guide)