The backtest results show that UNP has a 62.5% win rate over both 3-day and 10-day periods following earnings beats, with average returns of 0.33% and 0.74% respectively. However, the 30-day win rate drops to 50%, with a modest 0.55% return, indicating diminishing momentum over a longer horizon.

This suggests that UNP's stock price reacts positively but moderately to earnings beats, with the strongest gains occurring within the first 10 days. Investors might consider short-term positions to capitalize on this immediate post-earnings strength rather than holding long term.

Overall, a tactical approach focusing on the short-term window post-earnings beat appears most beneficial for UNP.

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The backtest results show that the Ground Transportation Industry experienced a positive impact following earnings beats, with a maximum return of 2.57% occurring 15 days after the event. This indicates a modest but consistent upward price movement in the industry after outperforming earnings expectations.

The analysis suggests that while the return magnitude is moderate, the positive trend is reliable over the medium term, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's earnings surprises.

Investors might consider taking advantage of earnings beats in this industry by holding positions for at least two weeks to capture potential gains.

The backtest reveals that Union Pacific's earnings beat positively impacted the Construction and Engineering industry, showing sustained gains over 40 days, while the Auto Parts industry experienced prolonged negative returns for 59 days. This divergence highlights the stronger industrial activity and freight demand benefiting infrastructure-related sectors, contrasted with consumer-driven sectors facing challenges. The results suggest that earnings beats from major transportation firms can signal sector rotation between capital goods and consumer discretionary industries. Investors might consider overweighting Construction and Engineering while reducing exposure to Auto Parts following such earnings surprises.

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Backtest UNP Earning Beats

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