The backtest reveals that UNH typically experiences negative returns following earnings that miss expectations, with an average 30-day return of -3.70% and a 30-day win rate of only 50%. Shorter-term performance is weaker, reflected by a 25% win rate over both 3 and 10 days, and negative returns around -3% on average.

This pattern indicates a consistent adverse market reaction to UNH earnings misses, suggesting investor sell-offs and diminished confidence.

Investors should be cautious and consider risk management strategies when UNH reports earnings below expectations.

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The backtest results show that earnings misses in the Health Care Providers & Services Industry have no significant impact on the sector's stock performance, with a maximum return of just 1.09%. Analysis indicates that such earnings misses do not lead to consistent market reactions or notable price movements over the tested period. For investors, this suggests that earnings misses in this industry may not warrant immediate portfolio adjustments or defensive positioning, as market response appears largely neutral and inconsequential.

The backtest reveals a pronounced negative impact on the Healthcare Services industry, with sustained declines lasting over 25 days following UnitedHealth Group's earnings miss. In contrast, Independent Power Producers, a defensive sector, experienced a notable positive performance for 53 days post-event. This divergence reflects sector rotation driven by investor caution after disappointing healthcare earnings.

The results highlight the sector-specific sensitivity to earnings surprises, where healthcare weakness coincides with gains in utility-related industries as safe havens. This suggests that during healthcare earnings disappointments, shifting portfolios towards defensive sectors can mitigate risk and enhance returns.

Investors should consider reducing exposure in Healthcare Services and increasing positions in Independent Power Producers in similar future scenarios.

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Backtest UNH Earning Miss

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