The backtest results show that JPM stock has a 53.85% win rate over 3 days and a 69.23% win rate over both 10 and 30 days following earnings beats, with a 30-day average return of 2.53%. This indicates a moderately positive market reaction that strengthens over time. The maximum return observed was 2.16% occurring around day 52, suggesting potential for longer-term gains. Investors might consider holding JPM shares for at least 10 to 30 days post-earnings beat to capitalize on the favorable price momentum.

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The backtest results show that JPM experienced a 100% win rate with positive returns of 2.52%, 5.49%, and 10.70% over 3, 10, and 30 days respectively after missing earnings expectations. This indicates a strong and consistent positive price reaction despite the earnings miss. The maximum return of 6.93% occurred on day 45, suggesting a delayed but sustained upward momentum. Investors might consider that JPM's stock tends to rebound robustly following earnings misses, presenting potential buying opportunities in the medium term after such events.

The backtest results show that when the Banks Industry beats earnings expectations, the impact on the sector is slightly negative, with a maximum return of only 0.70% occurring 27 days after the event. This suggests that positive earnings surprises in this industry do not translate into strong price gains over the medium term. Consequently, investors should be cautious about expecting significant upside from earnings beats in the Banks Industry and consider other factors or sectors for more pronounced positive returns.

The backtest results show that when the Banks Industry misses earnings expectations, the average maximum return is negative at -0.57%, occurring immediately on the event day. This indicates a consistent adverse market reaction to earnings misses within this sector over the tested period.

The negative return suggests that investors tend to penalize banks promptly for earnings shortfalls, reflecting sensitivity to earnings performance in this industry.

For investors, this implies a cautious approach is warranted when banks report earnings below expectations, as the sector typically experiences immediate downside pressure.

The backtest results reveal that JPMorgan Chase's earnings beat positively impacted the Capital Markets industry with sustained gains over 43 days, while the Chemical Products industry experienced a negative effect lasting 17 days. This divergence highlights a sector rotation where strong financial performance attracts investment to capital markets but detracts from cyclical sectors like chemicals.

The analysis suggests that investor confidence in financials drives capital market growth, whereas commodity-linked sectors face outflows. This pattern underscores the importance of sector allocation following major financial earnings surprises.

Investors may consider overweighting Capital Markets and underweighting Chemical Products after JPMorgan's earnings beat.

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The backtest reveals that JPMorgan Chase's earnings miss leads to a positive market impact overall, with the Construction and Engineering industry showing significant bullish gains over 59 days. This is likely due to anticipated stimulus or lower interest rates boosting infrastructure demand. Conversely, the Integrated Telecommunication Services industry experiences bearish pressure for 45 days, reflecting reduced corporate spending and cautious consumer demand amid financial sector weakness.

These results highlight a sector rotation effect triggered by JPMorgan's earnings miss, benefiting construction while hurting telecom services.

Investors might consider overweighting Construction and Engineering and underweighting Integrated Telecommunication Services following such earnings misses.

Backtest JPMorgan Chase Earnings Beat and Miss Impact

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