The backtest results show that NVS has a low short-term win rate of 30% over 3 days and 40% over 10 days following earnings beats, with negative average returns in these periods. However, the 30-day win rate improves to 60%, accompanied by a modest positive return of 1.45%. This indicates that while immediate reactions to earnings beats are weak or negative, the stock tends to recover and gain over a longer horizon.

The analysis suggests that investors should be cautious about short-term trades post-earnings beat but may benefit from holding NVS for at least 30 days to capture potential gains.

For investment strategy, a longer-term holding approach post-earnings beat appears more favorable than short-term speculation.

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The backtest results for NVS following earnings misses show a neutral performance with a consistent 50% win rate across 3, 10, and 30 days. Returns are minimal, with a slight negative return at 10 days and a modest positive return at 30 days, indicating limited immediate impact. This suggests that earnings misses for NVS do not strongly influence short- to medium-term price movements.

The analysis implies that investors may not expect significant downside or upside solely based on earnings misses for NVS.

Therefore, investment decisions should consider other factors beyond earnings misses when evaluating NVS.

The backtest results show that the Pharmaceuticals Industry experienced a slight negative impact with a maximum return of -0.36% on the event day following earnings beats. This indicates that despite positive earnings surprises, the industry did not gain immediate positive returns and may face short-term headwinds. The analysis suggests that earnings beats in this sector do not necessarily translate into positive price movements, highlighting potential market skepticism or other overriding factors. Investors should be cautious and consider additional factors beyond earnings beats when evaluating investment opportunities in the Pharmaceuticals Industry.

The backtest results show that the Pharmaceuticals Industry experiences a negative impact following earnings misses, with a maximum return decline of 0.49% on the event day. This indicates a consistent adverse market reaction to earnings underperformance within this sector. The analysis suggests that investors should be cautious when companies in the Pharmaceuticals Industry report earnings below expectations, as the immediate price effect tends to be negative. Consequently, a defensive stance or risk mitigation strategies may be prudent around such earnings announcements in this industry.

The backtest reveals that Novartis beating earnings positively impacts the Banks industry with notable gains over 28 days, while the Food Products sector experiences a prolonged negative effect lasting 58 days. This divergence reflects investor rotation towards financials driven by increased market activity and credit demand following strong pharmaceutical performance. Meanwhile, consumer staples like Food Products face relative underperformance as attention shifts away. Investors may consider overweighting Banks to capitalize on this trend and underweighting Food Products during similar pharmaceutical earnings beats for better portfolio positioning.

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The backtest reveals that Novartis missing earnings expectations leads to a negative impact on the Healthcare Equipment and Supplies industry, reflecting sector-specific weakness. Conversely, the Banks industry experiences a positive impact, likely due to increased demand for financial services amid market uncertainty.

This divergence highlights how pharmaceutical earnings misses can dampen related healthcare sectors while benefiting financial sectors through risk reallocation. The overall market shows a positive impact, driven by the bullish response in banking.

Investors might consider reducing exposure to healthcare equipment stocks and increasing positions in banks following such earnings misses.

Backtest NVS Earnings Beat and Miss Expectations

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