The backtest results show that TD achieved a 100% win rate over 3 and 10 days, with average returns of 1.94% and 2.53% respectively, and a 50% win rate over 30 days with a 1.73% return. This indicates a strong immediate positive price reaction to earnings beats, which tends to moderate over a longer horizon. The maximum return of 0.91% occurred on day 4, suggesting early gains post-event. Investors might consider capitalizing on short-term momentum following TD's earnings beats while being cautious about holding beyond one month.

backtest_data

The backtest results show that TD experienced a 57.14% win rate over 3 and 30 days, and a higher 71.43% win rate over 10 days following earnings misses, with returns increasing from 0.71% at 3 days to 3.34% at 30 days. This indicates a moderate positive price reaction despite earnings misses, peaking around day 23. The analysis suggests that the market may partially price in missed earnings, but TD's stock tends to recover and gain over the medium term. Investors might consider holding TD shares post-earnings miss to capture potential rebound gains.

The backtest results show that the Banks Industry experienced a negative impact following earnings beats, with a maximum return of only 0.75% occurring 27 days after the event. This suggests that despite positive earnings surprises, the sector's price reaction was muted and slightly adverse over the medium term.

The analysis indicates that earnings beats in the Banks Industry do not translate into strong positive returns, possibly due to market skepticism or other overriding factors.

Investors should be cautious about expecting significant gains from earnings beats in this sector and consider other factors when making investment decisions.

The backtest results show that when the Banks Industry misses earnings expectations, the sector experiences a negative impact with a maximum return decline of 0.57% on the event day. This indicates a consistent adverse market reaction to earnings misses within this industry over the tested period.

The analysis suggests that the Banks Industry is sensitive to earnings disappointments, reflecting investor concerns about profitability and future prospects when expectations are not met.

Investors should consider the potential downside risk in the Banks Industry following earnings misses and may adopt a cautious stance during such events.

The backtest results reveal a positive market impact following Toronto-Dominion Bank's earnings beat, with commercial banking sectors benefiting from increased lending and investment activity. Conversely, the Professional Services industry experienced a notable negative impact, likely due to reduced demand as banks internalize advisory services. This divergence highlights the event's differentiated effects across industries.

The analysis suggests that while the banking sector gains from financial strength signals, related service industries may contract. Investors should consider overweighting commercial banking exposure while cautiously monitoring professional services in the aftermath of such earnings beats.

This insight underscores the importance of sector-specific strategies post-earnings surprises in major banks.

backtest_industry_impact_data

The backtest results reveal a positive impact on the Banks industry with sustained gains over 54 days, while the Leisure Products sector experienced a prolonged negative effect lasting 51 days. This divergence reflects market revaluation and heightened risk awareness in banking, contrasted with reduced consumer discretionary spending affecting leisure products. The findings suggest that despite the earnings miss, banks may benefit from sector-specific adjustments. Investors should consider overweighting Banks and underweighting Leisure Products following such earnings misses to capitalize on these sectoral shifts.

Backtest TD Earnings Beat and Miss Expectations

Find all upcoming company earnings reports scheduled for dec 04 2025. Get details on which companies are reporting and their expected results.

Calendar