Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Battle at 105K: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price trajectory has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts as it hovers near the critical $105,000 level. Recent price action shows a mixed picture, with bulls attempting to maintain control above this threshold while bears press for a pullback toward $90,000. According to on-chain data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the number of addresses holding more than $100,000 in

However, the market remains underpinned by uncertainty as macroeconomic indicators continue to sway sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy stance, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations, has a direct bearing on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysts at Arcane Asset Management note that if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance in the coming weeks, it could trigger increased volatility and a short-term correction [2]. This scenario plays into the bearish narrative, which argues that the $105,000 level is not a strong enough support to prevent a retest of $90,000.

Technical analysis also provides mixed signals. Bitcoin's 20-day relative strength index (RSI) has shown signs of divergence, indicating potential exhaustion in the current upward move [3]. On the other hand, the price remains above its 200-day moving average, a key indicator of a bullish trend. Some traders are watching the $110,000 level as a potential trigger for a more aggressive rally, especially if the market manages to break through the current range and attract new speculative capital [4].

Market sentiment has been further complicated by the ongoing regulatory developments across major jurisdictions. In China Hong Kong, the government has taken a cautious but not entirely prohibitive stance toward digital assets, with the Monetary Authority of China Hong Kong issuing updated guidelines for crypto firms [5]. These developments add to the broader uncertainty, particularly as global regulators continue to grapple with the evolving nature of the crypto market. A regulatory crackdown or a shift in policy could act as a catalyst for a sharp sell-off or, conversely, a rally in speculative trading activity.

In the broader market context, Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to the broader equity markets and investor risk appetite. As major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq show signs of stabilization, Bitcoin is also beginning to reflect this trend. However, the correlation between equities and crypto is not always linear, and a divergence could emerge if macroeconomic conditions shift unexpectedly. This dynamic underscores the importance of closely monitoring not just price action, but also broader macroeconomic indicators and sentiment shifts.

Source:

[1] Glassnode - On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin Address Activity (https://glassnode.com)

[2] Arcane Asset Management - Macroeconomic Implications for Bitcoin (https://arcane.com)

[3] CoinMarketCap - Technical Indicators for Bitcoin (https://coinmarketcap.com)

[4] TradingView - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Chart Data (https://tradingview.com)

[5] Monetary Authority of China Hong Kong - Crypto Regulatory Update (https://www.amahk.gov.hk)